1914 - A significant centenary?
- By Tim Collard
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E-mail China.org.cn, February 5, 2014
The form taken by this sense of grievance in Imperial Germany involved a considerable military build-up, particularly on the seas. Here Germany was driven by a wish to catch up with the greatest naval power of the age, the United Kingdom. Now, China's build-up is not really aimed at any other specific power, but more at bringing China's military capability to a level appropriate to the role the new Asian economic giant aspires to adopt in the world. And this is where the real differences between 1914 and 2014 become apparent.
Of course most countries would be concerned at the rapid strengthening of any neighbor's military forces, especially one with which rivalries and disputes exist. This is certainly the case with many of China's neighbors, particularly in the South China Sea region. But the German build-up was targeted: the new navy's job was to neutralize British sea power, whereas the strengthening and reorganization of the German army was aimed specifically at France.
It was regarded as self-evident to German military strategists that France was the enemy against which land forces were to be directed, whereas the navy would hold off France's British ally. The main efforts of German diplomacy were bent towards ensuring (unsuccessfully as it turned out) that Russia would remain neutral, leaving Germany free to concentrate on its campaign against France.
No such circumstances exist in the East Asia of 2014. Despite the eternal quarrels and mistrust between China and Japan, it is not possible to conceive of China's military build-up as a detailed plan for the invasion of Japan. Nor has China shown any sign of interest in resolving the issue of the Korean peninsula by force, whether or not it can be solved by any other means. Insofar as China can be seen to have any proactive military intentions, they would seem to be limited to creating an unchallengeable fait accompli around the various disputed islands across the region.
The other main difference is that East Asia lacks the network of alliances which drew one European country after another into war in 1914. There are no alliances in the Asia-Pacific region except those involving the United States -- who will certainly not get involved in hostilities unless there is an extremely compelling reason to do so. So I think it is safe to say that 2014 will see no re-run of 1914.
The author is a columnist with China.org.cn. For more information please visit:
http://www.china.org.cn/opinion/timcollard.htm
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