Growth in China set to slow in post-industrial era
- By Li Jiangtao
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E-mail China.org.cn, March 2, 2014
China's gross domestic product (GDP) reached 56.8845 trillion yuan (US$9.31 trillion) in 2013, representing a 7.7 percent year-on-year growth, according to National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) data released on Jan. 20.
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Out of balance [By Jiao Haiyang/China.org.cn] |
China is the world's second largest economy. It also contributed 12 percent of the world's growth in terms of GDP in 2013.
Last December, the central authorities made it clear that GDP will not be the sole standard in assessing the performances of local Party and government officials. The downplaying of the importance of GDP growth was echoed in local governments' legislatures and political consultative conferences which have recently concluded. At the meetings, governments at all levels toned down their expectations for GDP growth.
But preparations should be made for the move away from focusing on GDP growth.
First, China may need to lower the demand for annual growth to 5-6 percent after 2020, when GDP is set to be double what it was in 2010. This target would require 7 percent annual GDP growth until the year 2020.
The Chinese economy is developing at a "moderately high speed," having already slowed from its previous "high speed" growth. In the future, especially after 2020, China's growth may need to happen at a "medium speed," because during the 14th Five-Year Plan (2021-2025), when China will largely have completed its industrialization, economic growth is bound to slow down.
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