Afghanistan is passing through a critical stage in its historical journey from a war-torn country to a democratic state with nascent but functioning civil and military institutions. There are two kinds of changes happening simultaneously in the country. Those related to the political sphere and the others linked to security. Both will have a long term impact on the future of the country.

The political transformation is key as it is the first time that a democratically elected leader will make room for his successor. It may not sound a very big success to some people but those aware of the country's past, and who observed the relentless violence over the past more than three decades, will concur that Kabul is on the way to achieving a milestone of democracy in far shorter span of time than other countries.

Neighboring Pakistan saw its first peaceful transition just a year ago in June 2013, almost 66 years after its independence and living through four military dictatorships. After the second run of the presidential election is completed next month, Afghanistan will be one of just a few Muslim countries in the whole of South, Central and West Asia to have a democratic system of governance, which, despite all oriental shortcomings, will be closer to the Western model of elected governments. The two final presidential rivals, Abdullah Abdullah and Ashraf Ghani are capable in their respective positions and have experience of being part of the government during the difficult years.

The second tier of the transition in Afghanistan is security related.

Critics of Afghanistan who image it becoming another Somalia need to reconsider their positions. Though there are still many ifs and buts, the latest report by the International Crisis Group portrays a picture which is not all black. The group admits that violence will surge in the shorter term during 2014-15 as the rebels try their luck through military means but their chances of gaining power are minimal.

There are many reasons for this optimism. First and foremost is the 0.37-million-strong Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF), which have done a reasonably good job during 2013 and the first quarter of this year, and are still committed to their duty. They fought pitched battles with Taliban, responded to their bombings and foiled many attacks. Their infightings have decreased with the passage of time and old tribal tendencies are slowly getting into a united force. Another positive sign noted by the International Crisis Group report is that more young people are ready to join the forces and their number is far bigger than those quitting.

The report also highlights some major concerns. On the top is the level of international financial commitment to Afghanistan once the bulk of the Western troops pulled out. A repetition of post-1989 is not on the cards but the situation may slowly go out of control if the soldiers are not paid their salaries on time or they are short of ammunition to fight the insurgents. The number of Western troops staying in the country after 2014 is also critical. Afghan leader Hamid Karzai's unnecessary brinkmanship was a costly gamble. It is important that the Bilateral Security Agreement with the U.S. and Status of Forces Agreement (SOFA) with the NATO are reached at the earliest time. Since Karzai left it for his successor to ink the controversial documents, it is unlikely that these major agreements will be reached before August.

During the transition, Afghanistan needs to concentrate on a few important things. First, the leadership should explore ways to reach the malleable parts of the Taliban while cracking down the hardcore old guards through the military. Second, it should revamp its foreign policy as the current strategy lack a balanced approach to deal with its neighbors. Third, it should concentrate on good governance by weeding out corruption and addressing the basic problems of the people.

Historical momentum and international goodwill are with Afghanistan. I believe that the Taliban can succeed only if the new Afghan government fails.

The writer is a Pakistani journalist and analyst.

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