Wreaths were laid and political leaders declared historic sacrifice to be the edifice of national spirit and democracy. Church memorials with royalty in full regalia were held, and uniformed soldiers saluted to the nobility of military duty. It all ended with solemn faces to promote remembrance and a campaign to turn off lights for an hour. These were the centenary events in Britain to remember the start of World War I, when millions were sent to die for the profits and power of the ruling capitalist states of Europe.

Harvard university professor Niall Ferguson writes that 1914 differs from 2014 because then, a series of "diplomatic and military miscalculations" produced an "improbable disaster." As evidence, he claims that the computer war game simulation "Making History: The Great Game," shows that the main events of 1914 can be replayed, and yet produce radically different results. Indeed, who can deny that the most insignificant things can influence history? Chance is a governing factor in daily life and human experience everywhere. The study of chance makes for a magical patchwork of historical investigation. It is evergreen with variety and possibility, and pregnant with the demand for a universal creator, to order the infinite chaos that enchants and horrifies us. So, for Dr Ferguson, the defining event that inaugurated and shaped the modern world was produced by accidental blunders.

Unfortunately this type of method dominates intellectual discourse about history and the present. Politicians sing from its songbook. The media weave empirical narratives out of it; and the education of our children is constructed around it. Historical warnings are sewn into emotional rituals, replete with all the theatrical trappings of a Hollywood epic that celebrates tragedy with an outpouring of crocodile tears, to encourage the general public to weep alongside its leaders.

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