Ukraine and the start of a new Cold War
- By Giovanni Vimercati
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E-mail China.org.cn, February 15, 2015
Western Europe does indeed find itself in the middle of a greater geopolitical dispute, that between Russian and the U.S., whose possible escalation into war would not be beneficial to an already shaky EU (it is no coincidence the Germans are opposing the military option invoked by Washington). For the first time, even Great Britain has not followed the American call to war and stated its skepticism towards providing military support to Ukrainian forces.
The outcome of this strategic divergence will shape the future power relations between its three main actors: Russia, Europe and America.
On top of these geopolitical intricacies there persists a certain Western superiority complex towards Russia that dates back to the Cold War and has in its end a most crucial development. While many Russians rightly felt that they had managed to get rid of the communist regime and were then ready to embrace the western model, America always looked at Russia as the defeated party, unworthy of respect and equal treatment.
No wonder the anti-American rhetoric being blasted out of Moscow is proving so successful… The fact that Putin insists on having his way in regard to the Ukrainian crisis is, in fact, perceived by most American pundits and commentators as an unforgivable affront.
The anti-Russian resentment that many feel in Ukraine (and other former Soviet republics) is an important factor that shapes public opinion in the West and, perhaps, gives Ukrainians an over-optimistic view of Europe.
A looming, potentially dangerous conflict where the only certainty is that probably nothing will go as expected will sorely damage Europe. National interests are no longer decisive factors in wars. What will really make the next war explode are economic interests, no longer even tied to nation states but to global oligarchies, be they Russian, American or European.
The recent peace deal that was brokered in Minsk and the ceasefire that should be implemented as we write, have already been welcomed with skepticism. Though Putin and Poroshenko agreed on the ceasefire, the road to lasting peace is likely to be a long and bumpy one.
There remain in fact some crucial unresolved issues. As part of the agreement, Kiev should, by the end of 2015, adopt a new constitution wherein the disputed areas of Donetsk and Lugansk are granted special autonomous status. The degree of said regional autonomy is perhaps the thorniest issue with Putin and the pro-Russian separatists pushing for a federalized Ukraine, while Kiev asks for just more decentralization.
Angela Merkel herself, who presided over the peace deal along with France Prime Minister Francois Hollande, has expressed little enthusiasm over the agreement adding that at least now there is a "glimmer of hope."
Furthermore, on February 11, Reuters reported that the U.S. Army European Commander Ben Hodges has announced that the U.S. Army will start providing training to Ukrainian troops starting from March. Should the conflict escalate once again, Ukraine could turn into an even more deadly battleground in a war between NATO and Russia. A war the America seems to be willing to initiate and fight, but that western Europe, understandably so, would prefer to avoid.
The writer is a columnist with China.org.cn. For more information please visit:
http://www.china.org.cn/opinion/giovannivimercati.htm
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