It's too early to talk about a 'Chinese century'
- By Yan Xuetong
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E-mail China.org.cn, March 29, 2015
China's economic growth is slowing. There is speculation that China's overall strength is on the decline. Indeed, China's GDP growth declined from 2010 to 2014. However, from 2012, China's overall national growth has been accelerating.
Comprehensive national strength = political strength × (military strength + economic strength + cultural strength). This equation can explain why China's overall national strength has grown rapidly despite the economic slowdown. The anti-corruption policy and foreign policy have helped improve China's political strength.
The size of China's economy has reached more than 60 percent of the United States. Whether the growth is sustainable or not depends largely on whether China can insist on an open political line. Countries with long-term open policy are more dynamic. Since 1978, China's comprehensive national strength has been improving thanks to the open political policy. The opening-up policy does not guarantee national rejuvenation, but without opening up, the national revival plan is doomed to fail.
In the next 10 years, no country can narrow its gap with the United States except China. The comprehensive national strength of the United States is greater than Russia, France, Germany, Japan and Brazil, and its growth is expected to be higher than these countries. So the gap between the United States and these countries is widening. India's overall national strength is less than an eighth of the United States. And the gap in the absolute strength between the two countries is widening.
China's comprehensive national strength ranks second in the world. As long as China's growth rate equals these countries, the gap between China and these countries is expected to widen. If the gap between China and the United States and other countries widens, a bipolar international system is likely to form.
Under such circumstances, small countries in East Asia will start to take sides. Mongolia can only rely on Russia and China. Cambodia, Laos, Malaysia and Thailand are moving closer to China. Myanmar and North Korea are pulling away from China, but are not yet be able to engage with the United States. The Philippines, Singapore, South Korea and Vietnam rely on the United States, while Indonesia and Brunei are holding back to see what happens next. The bipolar trend in East Asia is going global. Australia and Japan started strategic cooperation with the United States, while Brazil chose to enter a strategic cooperation with China.
With the changes in the international power structure, the center of the world will shift from Europe to East Asia, the international norms will evolve from European standards to multi-standards, and the role of regional organizations will outplay international organizations. How to build a new international order under the new global power structure will become increasingly a realistic international political issue.
The author is dean of the Institute of Modern International Relations, Tsinghua University.
This article was first published in Chinese and translated by Li Huiru.
Opinion articles reflect the views of their authors, not necessarily those of China.org.cn.
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