How to awake India from its pretend sleep
- By Mao Keji
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E-mail China.org.cn, April 16, 2015
The two agreements reflect both governments' wish to seek the best interest in maintaining an amicable bilateral relationship, while setting aside the disputes to be resolved in the future.
However, although both sides understand the significance of acknowledging the line of actual control, clarifying in detail how the line is marked has proven extremely difficult, especially when India constantly shifts its claims. On the one hand, India often plays up its "actual control" by expanding its military presence – deploying more troops and building more infrastructure, and Indian leaders have visited the region more than once to showcase what they believed to be their sovereignty. On the other hand, given there was no consensus on how the line should actually run, the Chinese military would also blunder across the line, only to be accused of a "Chinese invasion" by the Indian media. India's act has added more uncertainty to the already fragile "line of actual control."
The two countries tried to take another step in 2005 and reached the Agreement on the Political Parameters and Guiding Principles for the Settlement of the India-China Boundary Question. But in reality, border issues have continued to hinder the sound development of bilateral ties, and have sometimes even escalated to what the international community dubbed the "tent clash" of the two militaries.
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, also a leader of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), has stressed cooperation with China on economic development, but can his intension ease the border tensions? It is fair to say that Modi wished to boost the Indian economy by working together with China in the economic sectors as much as he wants to strengthen India's military through cooperation with the United States and Japan to ensure New Delhi's dominance in southern Asia, in addition to guarding against China.
In so doing, Modi is copying his predecessor Jawaharlal Nehru in seeking a middle way – economically relying on the East and politically relying on the West. The seemingly ideal approach, which takes advantage of both sides, is self-conflicting.
One area of common ground in India's cooperation with Japan and the United States is the perceived "China threat." Many of the Indian elite insisted on sticking to the actual line of control, because postponing the issue to an indefinite date of the future is not to India's interest, regarding the widening military gap between China and India. They advocate blurring current border issues while championing the "China threat," in a bid to underscore a united front against China with Vietnam, Japan and the Philippines – countries that have territorial disputes with China.
Domestically, India's decentralization and local powers have created solutions to border issues that are difficult to implement. The BJP and the Indian National Congress (INC), the two major Indian political parties, both need support from local parties and smaller parties to form an alliance. Therefore, neither dares to compromise on sensitive territorial issues but has to assume a tough stance to buy more support from the public.
Last year, the BJP obtained a majority in the Lok Sabha, the lower house of India's bicameral parliament, putting Modi in the top Indian government post. But BJP has a tough stance on international issues and is unlikely to suddenly change this even when it is in power. After all, a tough stance toward China can easily draw political dividends in the short run and by contrast, a compromise with China on border issues, although economically rewarding, would lead to public resentment at the beginning.
The territorial dispute between China and India is beyond the capabilities of diplomacy. You cannot "wake up" a person who is feigning sleep. If India thinks procrastination is in its interest, no progress can be made, however sincere China's attitude is. We have to expect Modi will look beyond the political dividends in the short term and focus on the infinite cooperation prospects between China and India, the two emerging major countries in Asia.
After Chinese President Xi Jinping's India visit last year, Modi noted that verifying the actual line of control would help to consolidate the two countries' effort in preserving peace and tranquility. He requested that Xi restart the process to verify the line.
Earlier, on March 23, the 18th round of border talks were held in New Delhi. We will find out during Modi's China visit in May whether the talks have produced results.
The writer is an observer of South Asian issues.
The article was translated by Chen Boyuan. Its original unabridged version was published in Chinese.
Opinion articles reflect the views of their authors only, not necessarily those of China.org.cn.
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