Inconclusiveness and implications for China-Iran economic cooperation
- By Jin Liangxiang
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E-mail China.org.cn, July 13, 2015
American and European analysts argue that China has been a beneficiary of Iran nuclear issue since China has gained business opportunities taking advantage of the absence of the West. But that is far from being true. China's business relations with Iran have actually been greatly undermined because of US unilateral sanctions since 2012 particularly.
Concerned about US sanctions, Chinese oil companies slowed down their pace regarding their investments in Iran's oil sector. China's petroleum import from Iran had been reduced from 600 thousand barrels a day in 2011 to 400 thousand barrels a day in 2012. And because of the financial sanctions, a lot of payment problems remained unresolved in China-Iran economic relations, and the potential has not been cultivated.
Progress in this issue will benefit China-Iran economic cooperation since China will face less pressure from both the US and Iranian sides. Neither of the two feels satisfied with China's policy in this regard. While the US claimed that China had not sufficiently pressured Iran for compliance, the Iranian side questioned how China could have stood by the US.
But the inconclusiveness of the Iran nuclear issue will continue to produce complicated effects on China-Iran economic relations in general. In the short term, China-Iran economic relations will continue to be affected by the sanctions, particularly those in financial sectors. And the payment obstacle will still greatly restrict the size of the economic relations between the two.
The Belt and Road Initiative will also have to face tough challenges because of the inconclusiveness. Iran should be significant in the implementation of the Initiative since Iran is pivotal both by its geographical position and by its demographical size. But the inconclusive nuclear issue will mean that Iran will still have problems with its economic development and integration with its neighbors.
In the longer term, the negative impact of financial sanctions on Iran's economy and China-Iran business relations will be greatly weakened. It is firstly because Iran will develop more ways to circumvent sanctions. It is secondly because that the roles of US in global economy and US dollar as a global payment currency will both decline.
As many US scholars have been arguing, it is the sanctions that make Iran go to the negotiating table. But the sanctions are preconditioned on the dominant roles of the US in global economy and US dollar as an international payment currency. Very few would doubt that US dominant role will decline and other currencies will share certain proportion of the market though the US will still enjoy its status as the most important player. Without such dominant roles, how can the US sustain its tough sanctions on Iran?
The author is a columnist with China.org.cn. For more information please visit: http://china.org.cn/opinion/jinliangxiang.htm
This article was first published at Chinausfocus.com To see the original version please visit http://www.chinausfocus.com/peace-security/the-iran-nuclear-issue-inconclusiveness-and-implications-for-china-iran-economic-cooperation/
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