Geopolitical ramifications of the Iran nuclear deal
- By Sumantra Maitra
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E-mail China.org.cn, July 16, 2015
As for the promotion of proxies, Iran has already been doing this, even under the strictest of sanctions, and it will continue to do so just like every other nation that acts according to its own national interest.
Finally, Iran's pursuit of hegemony in the Middle East will only further balance the region. Iran is after all a historical power and a proud social and cultural heavyweight; it is a much more liberal, worthy Middle Eastern counterweight to Sunni Wahhabi Islamism. This deal will legitimize Iran's position as a regional power and mellow it down, as history has proven that revolutionary societies always mellow with age, maturity and realpolitik.
But geopolitics is after all similar to game theory, which states that there must be some wins and some losses. While all the post-deal analysis has focused on who wins - China, the U.S. and the European Union - and while some commentaries claim that the world is going to end in a nuclear Armageddon in about 15 years, not much is being said about who is going to lose.
Of course, there are emotional cries that Israel is going to be the biggest loser, but these can be dismissed as partisan blabbering that is not to be taken seriously. Israel will incur no tangible losses from this deal. It still remains the greatest military power in the Middle East with no nearby peer rivals, it is still protected by American muscle and diplomacy, and it is still unaffected directly by the growing geopolitical and sectarian rivalry between the Shiites and the Sunnis. In fact, from a strict realist point of view, Israel is a huge winner in this deal. As long as Shiite forces and Sunni jihadists are locked in an existential struggle, Israel is relatively safe. The deal could also allow Benjamin Netanyahu to sell the rhetoric of Israel's siege mentality for domestic consumption as he did before the Israeli elections, securing his seat for a few more years.
The actual big losers from this deal are Russia and Saudi Arabia, with minor losses for India. Many Indian small businesses benefitted from Iranian consumption when Iran was under sanctions, and they will face increased competition from other countries once sanctions are lifted. But India can handle this by channeling its exports elsewhere or absorbing them into the domestic market.
The Saudis are losing the most in this deal. They are losing clout in the Middle East while their biggest geopolitical and sectarian rival is being legitimized just as its economy is poised to boom and its military about to be more modernized.
Similarly, Russia is going to be a major loser in this game. Recent analysis suggests Iran could well become the biggest supplier of crude oil and gas to Europe, thereby taking away Russia's only leverage against the EU. We are witnessing a curious historical change here as Russia becomes an international pariah subject to increasing sanctions while Iran gains legitimacy, thereby trading places with Russia and justifying global norms.
As I mentioned above, the importance of this deal cannot be measured in numbers. The importance lies in its geopolitical significance. In a region where violence and animosity is the norm, discussion, debate and agreement are the exceptions. Only time will tell how the ramifications of this deal will unfold in the coming days and years, but we can be sure that history has been written on pages of paper before our eyes without the use of force or coercion, but by negotiation and dialogue. This change should be welcomed.
The writer is a columnist with China.org.cn. For more information please visit: http://china.org.cn/opinion/SumantraMaitra.htm
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