Remember Napoleon, and avoid overestimation

By Sumantra Maitra
0 Comment(s)Print E-mail China.org.cn, November 12, 2015
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For those of us researching international relations, and old enough to remember the final days of the cold war and the immediate aftermath of the collapse of Soviet Union, there's a sense of déjà vu in Russia bombing Syria.

This is an almost textbook case of a power vacuum being filled. Russia, after being on the sidelines for the greater part of two decades is now rising as a colossus, and reclaiming its "rightful place" as a Great Power, ruthlessly determined to defend state interests - or so the argument goes.

Is this really so sudden or did we miss the signs, from Putin's Munich speech in 2007, to his short war in Georgia in 2008, to the Arctic, Crimea and Syria. Reactions vary from denial, to rage. Anders Rasmussen, the former Danish Prime Minister and NATO chief, suggests Russia tragically misunderstood Western intentions.

In an article, he claims the West and NATO were genuinely interested in making Russia a partner, which supports the Russian claim that NATO eastward expansion threatened its national interest. Joshka Fischer also warns the West should realize the geo-politics is back in the European continent with a vengeance.

However, the real debate focuses on the capability of Russian forces. Julia Ioffe wrote in Foreign Policy that when the Pentagon dusted off old war plans against Russia, to its surprise, table top simulations showed the US losing. The simulations are presumably on a scenario based on Eastern Ukraine, where Russian troops overrun the Baltic states, and NATO, for all its military might, fails to withstand the blow.

There are also arguments within the Pentagon over whether to rely on heavy firepower to deter Russia in a traditional way, or focus on a much smaller but lethal and agile force much like Russia's own "hybrid warriors". "Russia is taking us back to school", according to the common analysis of the US defense community.

However, is all this really true? I doubt it. It is incredible how Russia has managed to rebuild its forces since the shabby 2008 performance during the Georgian war. The command and control structure is working fine. Russia has shown it can form a small expeditionary force of air and ground components to tilt the balance in any normal war.

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