The incident in which Turkey downed a Russian jet on Nov. 24 indicated the accumulated conflicts between Russia and Turkey over striking against the IS terrorists. This incident will have much impact on the relationship between Russia and the Western countries, and is a huge blow to future international counter-terrorist cooperation.

At first, Russia denied a Turkish government claim that its jet violated its air space, insisted it had always stayed within the borders of Syria. NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg then said there was proof the Russian jet flew into Turkish air space for 17 seconds, but not the five minutes claimed by Turkey.

If NATO is right, then a claim by the Turks that they issued a number of warnings before shooting down the plane must be wrong. As the time was so short, it surely means Turkey had a longstanding plan; it also means the Turkish jets were flying by the side of Russian jet as soon as it entered the air space, and shot the plane down immediately without seeking permission from anyone.

Although Turkey wants to be the leader of the Islamic world and doesn't like to see Russia strike IS, it didn't have to take the Russians on in such a blatant way. Russia is a world power, so every country should be careful when engaging in military action with it.

There is an argument that the shooting was a lone action by the Turkey military, which wanted to pressure President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's administration. When Erdogan served as Prime Minister, he amended the Constitution and cut the military budget, which angered the military. However, another possible scenario was the government and the military had a certain tacit agreement on this.

Two months ago, when Erdogan visited Moscow, the two presidents announced they expected the bilateral trade volume could reach US$100 billion by 2023. It was only $31 billion in 2014. At that time, Russia was adjusting its foreign trade structure under the circumstance that Russia and the Western countries were engaged in a sanctions wars, so Turkey and Russia were negotiating the free trade deal to get round this.

Actually, Turkey was very vague on tackling IS. When President Putin called Turkey the accomplice of the terrorists, he wasn't totally wrong. Seeking leadership of the Islamic world, Turkey has had a long and close relationship with international terrorist groups such as al Qaeda and the East Turkestan Islamic Movement. Even when the IS was just emerging, Turkey had connections with it in terms of personal contacts and funding. Russia also provided proof for its claim that Turkey funded IS by buying crude oil from it.

Turkey was also very unhappy with Russia's action against the IS. Since September, Russia's attacks on IS targets also impacted Turkmen militants near the Turkish border that had Turkish support in the Syrian civil war. In November, the Turkish foreign minister protested to Russia several times.

When Turkey downed the Russian jet, Putin called it backstabbing. Nikolai Levichev, vice chairman of the State Duma, slammed Turkey's actions as proving the connections between Turkey and the IS. Generally speaking, Russia's reactions were within the expected range. Substantive action will be suspending cooperation with Turkey in military and economic areas.

The powerful Putin attaches great importance to maintaining national dignity, so he will fight back. However, Russia has to consider the United States and other Western countries when it deals with Turkey, which is part of NATO. According to the NATO charter, an attack on any member is an attack on all, allowing all the member nations to exercise their rights for self- and collective defense.

Though the United States is unhappy with Turkey regarding its close relationship with the IS and al Qaeda, when Turkey has to face off with angry Russia, America and other Western powers will certainly stand behind it. This is not only about maintaining the strategic structure of Europe, but also about maintaining the NATO's internal cohesion.

No matter what Russia and Turkey do to fix their relationship or move to confrontation, there is no doubt international anti-terrorist cooperation against the IS will be more difficult. By exploiting Russia's visa-free policies for Turkey, many Chechnya militants and now IS militants have moved in and out of Russia.

Although the leaders of the two countries clearly know they need each other, the political elite have to consider their own people's will and sentiment. In the next phase, Russia has to choose Syria, Libya, and Iraq as its allies for international anti-terrorist cooperation, while Turkey will rely on America and the Western powers even more. Under the circumstance when Russia rivals the West, two independent international anti-terrorist cooperation blocs will have emerged.

The writer is a PhD with the Russia Study Centre of East China Normal University.

The article was first published in Chinese and translated by Zhang Rui.

Opinion articles reflect the views of their authors, not necessarily those of China.org.cn.

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