Top 4 takeaways from this year's Putin Press Conference
- By Sumantra Maitra
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E-mail China.org.cn, December 19, 2015
As a Russia watcher, this is the event one waits a whole year to observe, when Russian President Vladimir Putin invites journalists across the world, to attend a marathon three-and-a-half hour impromptu session where he steadily answers, or in some case, deviates from and evades answering.
This is fascinating, because it gives an insight into the decision-making process of the opaque foreign affairs community and internal politics of Russia and is particularly important this year given Russian behavior in Eastern Europe and the Middle East. It also indicates what might happen in the near future.
Anyway, here are my top four takeaways from the Forbes "world’s most powerful man" for the third time in a row.
Russian soldiers were in Ukraine
Perhaps, the most important is Putin’s admission that Russian soldiers were in Western Ukraine. "We never said there weren’t people there carrying out certain tasks, including the military sphere. But that does not mean they were Russian (regular) troops…feel the difference…" Putin stated, carefully evading the question as to whether the troops were in a combat or support role.
A year back, Putin said Crimean secession was planned and orchestrated in the Kremlin, and now this comes as an admission of sorts, although not shocking anyone.
Putin endorses Donald Trump
In another response that should surprise no one, Putin endorsed "bright, colorful and talented" Donald Trump for President and stated that he looks forward to working with him in future. This also underscores Putin’s previous endorsement of French rightist Marine Le Pen.
Donald Trump has also described Putin as someone he can work with, and that Putin is right in his approach to dealing with ISIS and Syria. Barring a minor statistical possibility of Trump actually winning the nomination, and then going on to win the Presidency, which I don’t foresee happening, it is interesting to consider Putin trying to influence the U.S. election process.
Turkish saga is not over yet
The greatest scorn was reserved for the Turks. "I'm not saying it’s good or bad, but I think the current leadership of Turkey needs to show the Americans and Europeans that if they are Islamizing the country, they’re still nice Islamists. To paraphrase [former President Ronald] Reagan, we're Islamists but we're your Islamists. There's a process [going on in Turkey] that would make [Kemal] Ataturk turn in his grave."
Pretty pointed remarks, they were, showing Putin was still smarting over the "betrayal," as he terms it, of the Turkish shooting down of a Russian jet, and giving a pointed warning that the same fate might befall any Turkish jets daring to venture deep inside Syria without the Syrian government’s permission.
It’s interesting to note that U.S. coalition jets and Israel operate within Syria without Assad’s permission, but Putin didn’t say a word about them, only mentioning Turkey. Putin also said that President Erdogan is trying to "cozy up" to U.S., but the latter doesn’t need the Turks, which is a hint that the détente between U.S. and Russia over Syria is working, and the West needs Russia more than it needs Turkey.
"Turkey used to violate Syrian airspace all the time, so let them try to fly there now," Putin said. This might be another hint at other powers, like China, for example, on how to defend their immediate borders with Russian air defenses.
Russia is in Syria for a long haul
Russia is there for a long haul, and might even escalate given the circumstances, according to Putin. "This doesn't put any significant (pressure) on the budget ... It's hard to imagine better training. We will carry out air strikes and support Syrian army offensives for as long as the Syrian army carries them out."
Readers may remember, when the Syrian intervention started, I wrote that one of the main Russian goals would be to show off and test new weaponry in desert battle conditions, and to have actual combat training for troops, which has never fought a war outside the immediate Russian neighborhood since 1989.
President Putin all but accepted that as a fact, and also kept an exit strategy open. Notice the sentence "as long as the Syrian army carries them out"…which means, given the eventuality that Assad might fall, Russia can still come out of Syria stating that it was there solely in a supporting role, and it comes out with head held high, like the eventual withdrawal from Afghanistan.
The writer is a columnist with China.org.cn. For more information please visit:
http://china.org.cn/opinion/SumantraMaitra.htm
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