Xi's visit highlights China's new Middle East role
- By John Ross
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E-mail China.org.cn, January 19, 2016
While in words opposing "jihadist” terrorists, in practice U.S. military interventions were the most internationally effective force strengthening them. Not only Middle Eastern citizens but those of Paris, Jakarta, Mali, Nigeria and other regions paid for U.S. foreign policy. However, Europe suffering serious terrorist threats and refugee crisis has led to a new desire to stabilize the Middle East. In this situation China's foreign policy framework provided a potentially positive contrast to the results of U.S. foreign policy.
The destabilizing reliance of the U.S. on military interventions was a direct reflection of its relative economic decline – reflected in relative falls in U.S. foreign aid and financial resources. In contrast China, while not yet matching U.S. global military power, has taken over from the U.S. as the world's financial superpower. By 2013, according to the latest international data, China's annual gross domestic savings, the raw material of financial strength, were $4.8 trillion compared to the U.S.'s $2.7 trillion. China's net savings, taking into account fixed capital consumption, were $3.0 trillion compared to the U.S.'s $0.4 trillion – an overwhelming Chinese advantage. This financial strength allows China to undertake projects such as the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank and similar international initiatives. This creates a situation in which the main U.S. international advantage is military power while China's main advantage is financial strength – a geopolitical situation which might be described as "U.S. bombs versus Chinese banks.”
The intersection of these realities with the Middle East is evident. "U.S. bombs” have demonstrably led to a strategic catastrophe. Restabilizing the Middle East will take many years after the disasters created by U.S. interventions and "China's banks” are potentially of great use in achieving this.
Therefore, China has not only direct Middle Eastern economic concerns but a convergence of political interests with numerous international forces.
• Economic stabilization is in the interests of major Middle East powers – Egypt faces acute economic difficulties while Saudi Arabia and Iran's room for economic manoeuvre is reduced by severe oil price falls.
• Europe hopes Middle East restabilization can lessen the refugee crisis and terrorist threat.
• Russia hopes greater Middle East stability can lessen the interrelated jihadist terrorist threats in the Caucasus and aid the position of long standing Russian allies in the Middle East such as Assad and increasingly Iran.
Numerous international forces therefore have a strong interest in China playing a more active role in the Middle East. Unlike Russia, China does not have direct military interests in the region – claims in the media that China would intervene militarily in the Middle East were fantasy. But China has financial resources unmatched by any other country.
China therefore cannot by itself stabilize the Middle East, and there is no indication it suffers from that illusion, but China is an indispensable part of a Middle East solution. Consequently, while Xi Jinping's visit will have the economic bedrock of energy and Belt and Road, the Middle East's political situation means a wide range of global forces will follow the visit with the greatest interest.
The writer is a columnist with China.org.cn. For more information please visit: http://www.china.org.cn/opinion/johnross.htm
Opinion articles reflect the views of their authors, not necessarily those of China.org.cn.
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