Rocky road ahead to reach permanent truce in Yemen

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The ceasefire which was lately reached by Saudi Arabia and Yemen's Ansarullah, known as the Houthi militia, is taking hold. Analysts here foresee rocky and thorny problems ahead before permanent truce is reached.

The deal included a prisoner swap, according to statements by Houthi officials and the Saudi-led coalition which has been bombing Yemen for around one year.

Observers argued that the deal for ceasing fire on the border between Saudi Arabia and Yemen reflected the desire of both sides to avoid more losses after a year of war.

Abubaker Abdullah, a political analyst and writer, said Saudi Arabia is seeking to avoid more losses after it has failed through the bombing campaign and ground battles on the border to defeat the Yemeni forces and popular committees.

"Saudis also are seeking to bring the situation in southern cities under control amid increasing chaos caused by battles," he said.

Nabil Albukiri, a Yemeni researcher, said the Houthis accepted the truce as a token of friendship after big losses during their internal wars in Yemen and battles with Saudi and Arab forces on the border. "The Houthis wanted to show a goodwill after devastating losses," Albukiri said.

Yaseen Al-Tamimi, a political analyst based in Turkey, said the truce came within the Houthi commitment to the UN resolutions.

"It was not that official deal. If Saudi Arabia accepts to strike a deal with the Houthis, that means it accepts a new Hezbollah is formed in the region," Al-Tamimi said.

Observers said the truce was not that big deal which means it won't lead to a permanent ceasefire in Yemen.

"It is difficult to say the truce will lead to a permanent ceasefire in Yemen. Saudi Arabia has failed politically and militarily in the country and now is seeking to survive and get out of the war which will lead to severe consequences in the Kingdom and Yemen," Abdullah said.

Albukiri said the truce could lead to a resumption of UN-brokered peace talks between the Yemeni government and Houthi group.

"However, such talks if they take place will be controlled by regional and international developments," said Albukiri.

In March 2015, the Saudi-led military coalition launched a military bombing against the Houthi forces which ousted the UN-backed transitional government in Yemen.

The gaol was to restore legitimacy of the Yemeni government and to face Iranian plans to expand in the region.

The Houthi group is accused of receiving financial, technical and military support from Iran, an accusation which the group denies.

Since they seized power in late 2014, the Houthis have been involved in some provinces with pro-government forces and loyalists.

Both the civil war and the airstrikes have resulted in many civilian casualties and havoc.

Also, the blockade on all Yemeni sea, land and air routes has deepened the country's humanitarian catastrophe as it has been depriving it of all supplies.


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