Post Brexit look at China-UK trade: where they stand

By Sumantra Maitra
0 Comment(s)Print E-mail China.org.cn, July 31, 2016
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One continuous din before the entire EU referendum was that Britain would lose its place among the world's biggest economies. London would lose its financial hub position, and will wither away into obscurity. Britain will be inward looking and isolationist, and dark marauding gangs will roam the bleak desolate streets of England, at least that was the narrative we were getting from the online social networking hashtag #BrexitBritain. Incidentally, facts somehow ruin narratives, as we see from the tour of Chancellor Phillip Hammond how post Brexit economics are shaping up.

One of the last acts of PM David Cameron was to gather the business leaders of China, India and the US and try to find alternate sources of investment. It is simple economics that free trade within Europe is tied up with the free movement of labor. Constructing borders will impose tariffs, will impose more costs on checking and guards, and will increase costs for businesses to perform. That is the common logic behind all the cries that Britain won't be a profitable market anymore and therefore economics will suffer. However, Britain is essentially a financial market, with London being the capital financial center in Europe. The financial sector doesn't suffer from high labor mobility reactions as well as contains skilled labor, which are not usually hampered by immigration checks. And we can see signs of that now.

India, the U.S., China, New Zealand and Australia enthusiastically responded to Cameron's last call. Australia and New Zealand wanted a pre-1970s type of special free trade agreement and India and the U.S. wanted to start trade talks immediately, acknowledging that the market condition has not deteriorated much. But what was the actual market reaction? It is also quite stoic, if not positive. There has been no heavy downturn other than the first night of the Brexit. Barclays said they are not moving or changing jobs or positions from the U.K., as the U.K. is an extremely pro market destination. Huawei has plans to carry on with their 13 billion investments. And finally, the GSK decided to pump 275m more in their factories in England and Scotland, and emphatically said Britain is their primary investment destination. Juwai, the Chinese property investor, said that the number of buyers in U.K. properties can increase by almost 40 percent.

All this can be however argued that after all the Brexit hasn't happened yet, and the way spanners are thrown, it might never even happen. Or it might happen in a nominal way, with effectively all the prior machinations in place, an arrangement which will satisfy the crowds, might give back some power to the British parliament, and keep the scapegoat ready for future blame. If the Brexit happens, then London will try to emulate the Hong Kong/Singapore model. In fact, the Swiss banks are already trying for a Switzerland, Hong Kong, Singapore and London quadrilateral, which will be known as the F4 alliance. Incidentally, Switzerland is also outside the EU. Britain is the highest offshore renminbi trading hub, and will most likely continue to be. FT also reported that London will eventually post Brexit transform England to a Fin-Tech center of the world. That doesn't look like isolationism, and I cannot see any trends as such, in fact, that actually looks like one of the original promises of the Brexit, more integration into the global economy.

This brings me to Chancellor Hammond's China trip. This is the first time the U.K. has tried something this big with China currently the second largest economy in the world. The Chancellor was at pains to explain that this was no bargaining or punishing process with the EU, but that the U.K. is actually now in need of China, and currently without restraints, want to have a free trade deal with China, one that has got extensive support on the other side as well, as reported by the BBC. The BBC reported that in lieu of greater access to the U.K. for its manufactured products and investment, "China would reduce barriers to Britain's service industries like banking and insurance as well as U.K. goods. That would be an important source of export income for Britain."

Overall, the trends can confirm two things. Firstly, the China-U.K. golden trade relationship which started firstly during Chancellor Osborne's Beijing visit, and then President Xi's London visit, is firm and on robust ground. Britain is indeed looking to China and the Brexit might be a golden opportunity for that. Britain needs China, and China shouldn't lose this post Brexit opportunity. Secondly, on a macro level, and over time, if a country is on firm economic footing and fundamentals, shocks can be absorbed. There will be of course basic structural changes in the U.K. post EU divorce. But life will go on, and for all practical purposes, might even get better.

Sumantra Maitra is a columnist with China.org.cn. For more information please visit:

http://www.china.org.cn/opinion/SumantraMaitra.htm

Opinion articles reflect the views of their authors only, not necessarily those of China.org.cn.

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