Macron or Le Pen?
- By George N. Tzogopoulos
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E-mail China.org.cn, April 26, 2017
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French presidential candidate Emmanuel Macron and far-right candidate Marine Le Pen. [Xinhua file photo] |
Conservative leader François Fillon and Socialist Party candidate Benoît Hamon almost immediately called their supporters to vote for Macron while conceding defeat. For his part, far-left candidate Jean-Luc Mélenchon preferred to take no position in his post-election speech.
The May 7 face-off for the French presidency, however, will not only depend on guidance given by defeated politicians to the French public. The fact that Le Pen participates in this second stage means that numerous French voters will have to vote for Macron in order to avert the scenario of the establishment of a far-right presidency in their country. This reality gives the dimension of a referendum in favor or against Europe to the vote of May 7.
Le Pen has been Eurosceptic for years. The term "Frexit" is used in the public discourse because she has promised to organize a referendum for France's stay either in the EU or in the euro should she become president. Therefore, a vote for Le Pen in two weeks will suggest that the majority of French citizens might be prepared to see France outside the basic European structures. It is not a coincidence that European policymakers have welcomed the victory of Macron in the first round.
Within this framework, the centrist candidate has many chances to become the new president indeed. Although two weeks are a long period in politics – especially in a divided country being encountered with the danger of terrorism like France – Macron is generally seen as the lesser evil. Naturally, he said to his supporters and all French citizens after qualifying to the second round that he wants to become "president for patriots faced with the threat of nationalism." By avoiding even to mention the name of Le Pen, he presented himself as the leader who could serve his country's national interest avoiding risky choices such as isolationism.
Le Pen continues on the same path. She puts emphasis on her anti-migration rhetoric while criticizing the process of globalization. She is also expected to further reveal the weaknesses of her political opponent as the centrist candidate lacks a specific political ideology attempting to satisfy almost all voters by mixing up left and right.
Her father and veteran leader of Front National, Jean Marie Le Pen, for example, spoke on the French radio and condemned Macron calling him a "Socialist in disguise." Le Pen generally targets disenchanted and poor French voters but also citizens who see their country have a secondary role in Germany-led Europe as opposed to its past political superiority.
The battle until May 7 will be ferocious and certainly original. Mainstream political parties are seriously damaged due to the problematic performance of both Nicolas Sarkozy and François Hollande from 2007 onwards. The pre-election alleged scandal with Fillon's wife eliminated hopes of a recovery for the Conservatives. As far as the French Socialists are concerned, they cannot escape from the trap of neoliberal, austerity policies failing to bring growth and to contribute to prosperity. In such an environment, Macron and Le Pen can set the rules without using standard political slogans and methods while the behavior of the electorate goes beyond traditional cleavages.
At the time of writing, Macron appears to be the favorite to win the French presidential election. Initial polls also anticipate this result with a large difference between the candidates. Nevertheless, the driving force which will probably unite most citizens to vote for him is not his political program but the fear of an unknown adventure in the case of a victory by Le Pen. No enthusiasm or political momentum are apparent.
The day after will be challenging for France even with Macron as its president. The legislative election, which will take place in June, will be equally critical because no president can implement his or her agenda having no majority in the parliament. Difficult political calculations will be required for an appropriate balance to be found. Macron should not only overcome the obstacle of Le Pen but also his limited political experience as he has never been elected to any public office and is only 39 years old.
George N. Tzogopoulos is a columnist with China.org.cn. For more information please visit:
http://www.china.org.cn/opinion/GeorgeNTzogopoulos.htm
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