New era of homo hundred, low growth in S. Korea
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Xinhua, January 4, 2012
Homo sapiens, Latin for wise man, is the first human being who has lived on earth for about 200,000 years. Homo hundred, a phrase to describe future humans who live for 100 years, will emerge as a new human species in homo genus.
Until 1990, there was no country where the population's average lifespan exceeds 80 years, but the number rose to 6 nations, including Japan, Italy and Australia, in 2000, and the figure was expected to surge to 31 countries by 2020, according to the United Nations (UN).
South Korea, the world's fastest aging country, may face the new era of homo hundred for the first time across the globe. The country was predicted to become a super-aged society in 2026 after making an aged society 2018, according to the UN. It already became an aging society in 2000.
The Asia's No. 4 economy showed a spectacular growth helped by demographic dividend, or the large number of working age people versus the smaller number of children and the elderly, but the population aging was feared to put the nation into an era of low growth.
"Though opinions vary among economic experts, all agree on one thing: population aging is a key determinant in ushering in an era of slow growth. South Korea's economic growth was expected to slow to the 3 percent level over the long run," Eom Dong-wook, a research fellow at Samsung Economic Research Institute (SERI) told Xinhua Tuesday.
The population aging entails more than a rising share of the elderly. The aging will pull down potential economic growth in South Korea as it reduces the number of productive population aged 15-64, while pushing up costs for senior care. Falling working people and soaring costs for seniors will lead to low productivity and heavy fiscal burden.
Fastest aging
South Korea was expected to become the fastest graying country in the world. According to the UN's world population prospects, it was projected to take 18 years for the country to shift from aging society to aged society, while taking only 8 years to move from aged society to super-aged society.
The country, which became an aging society in 2000, was expected to be an aged society in 2018, before being a super-aged society in 2026. Societies whose proportion of the population aged 65 and above surpasses 7 percent, 14 percent and 20 percent are called aging society, aged society and super-aged society respectively. The UN expected the share of people aged 65 and above in South Korea to rise from 11.1 percent in 2010 to 34 percent in 2065.
The nation's speed of aging was even faster than the one in the super-aged Japan where the same process took 24 years and 12 years respectively. The process in South Korea took much less time than the one in Western countries, including the United States with 73 years and 21 years and Sweden with 85 years and 42 years as well as France with 115 years and 39 years each.
Childbirth & lifespan
Falling childbirth and rising lifespan were the main culprits for the fastest aging in South Korea. According to Statistics Korea, the nation's total fertility rate, gauging the total number of children born by a woman of childbearing age, dropped from 4.71 people in 1970 to 1.22 people in 2010. The figure was even lower than 1.27 people in the ultra-low fertile Japan.
The steep fall was attributable to population control campaigns. The South Korean government unveiled various family planning policies such as the three children campaign in 1968, two children campaign in 1971 and one child campaign in the 1980s. After its total fertility rate fell below the population replacement rate of 2.1 people in 1983, the government turned to a pro-natal policy, but delayed marriages pulled down the rate further.
Steeply rising life expectancy also boosted graying in the country. Average life expectation jumped to 79.4 years in 2010, up 37.8 percent from 57.6 years in 1970. The rate of change during the 40-year period was higher than 20.5 percent for the global average and 16 percent for Japan. The UN projected the country's average lifespan to rise to 90 years by 2100.
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