King awaits royal flush as Swan tries to swoon Oscar
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Predicting the Oscars is a tricky business. As a former Hollywood reporter, I have covered Tinseltown's annual love-in on too many ghastly occasions, and correctly forecasting who will be crowned king on the night is not as easy as it seems.
The airwaves and newspapers of the Western world, and some in China, have been crammed with the latest speculation as the great and good of America's media gargle on about who they think deserves to have all their dreams come true on a night when trailer parks become virtuous.
Most people think The King's Speech will be crowned on the night, leaving Social Network stuttering. And they're probably right, maybe.
Hollywood is the world capital of storytelling, and we all know what happened to the hare that ran ahead of the tortoise too early in the race. Oscar night is never without surprises, in a world that created cliffhanger endings.
But having attended the Oscars twice as a guest of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences, there are a few secrets I gleaned about the movie industry's biggest night of backslapping that I'm happy to share for those wanting to get ahead in the office sweepstakes.
The people who get to crown Hollywood's royalty are the voting members of the academy, a group of nearly 6,000 people who are part of one of the most exclusive clubs in the world. They include actors, directors, editors, costume designers, writers, and composers who make up the academy's 15 branches. Actors have the Screen Actors Guild (SAG), directors have the DGA, the Directors Guild of America, WGA for writers, PGA for producers, etc.
All of whom, from the start of awards season, with the Golden Globes to the end, with the Oscars, hold their own fringe awards for their own branches. And this is where you get the biggest indicator of who is most likely to win the big prize.
Each member has a vote, but that's where the simplicity ends. Oscar voting is hugely political and at times controversial, and save for breaking into the safe where the ballots are currently stored, nobody truly knows who will win on the night.
To paraphrase Donald Rumsfeld: there are known knowns, known unknowns and unknown unknowns. But in the spirit of sticking one's neck out and at the risk of being wrong, let me do just that.
I guarantee you every last yuan in my pocket that Colin Firth will win best actor for The King's Speech. It's a shoo-in.
SAG make up the biggest voting bloc in the academy and picked him as their winner.
As they did with Natalie Portman for Black Swan in the best actress category. Personally I think she deserves a golden statue for 108 minutes of sexual abuse, but this is where we might see a surprise.
Actors love actors, and Annette Bening, who is nominated for The Kids Are All Right, is the current chair of the actors branch and may ruffle the feathers of Portman's swan.
What is most important for the actress in a leading role gong is the ability to cry on demand, and upon winning turn into a blubbering, teary mess, thanking everyone including your neighbor's cat while extolling the virtues of being just a trailer-park girl with a dream.
Plus, Portman is pregnant. And what's better than a blubbering, teary mess on stage? A pregnant, blubbering teary mess. But some of the old boys of the academy, of which it has a lot, may think she is a little young to realize her Oscar dreams and side with Hollywood stalwart Bening, (4 nominations, 0 wins)
The best supporting actress category has been shrouded in controversy after claims that Melissa Leo of The Fighter torpedoed her chances as favorite by taking out adverts in the Hollywood trade press to canvass for votes. I don't see what all the fuss is about, studios and talent agents do it every year, as did Joan Crawford in 1945, and it didn't stop her from winning for Mildred Pierce.
My money is on Christian Bale in The Fighter for actor in a supporting role, although Geoffrey Rush's performance in The King's Speech is equally worthy.
But when it comes to best picture, there's one indicator that rarely fails. More often than not, whoever wins the DGAs, arguably the most important of the branches, goes on to win best picture at the Oscars. Which would make The King's Speech this year's winner.
But anything can happen in the land of make-believe, and it must be a tempting narrative for Hollywood's elite to have the underdog Fighter make a comeback and knock out the King to steal the crown.
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