[By Zhai Haijun/China.org.cn]

North Korea currently poses a great challenge to the entire international community and – most acutely – to China. Chinese responses are always carefully calibrated, and highlight how difficult dealing with this issue has become.

The problem for China is that it is difficult to identify a preferred outcome, and thus difficult to formulate a policy. China's main preoccupation is to maintain peace and stability in East Asia; the second priority is to prevent the emergence of a direct threat to China from foreign forces of any kind operating from the Korean Peninsula. Thus the status quo, uncomfortable though it is, is seen as preferable to any step which might carry a real risk of one of those eventualities. However, it is becoming increasingly clear that the status quo is not sustainable and that North Korea cannot be relied upon to preserve it.

The new generation of North Korean leadership does not seem to respond to incentives or threats in the same way that most countries do. Until now, North Korea's need for survival has always forced them to stop before things grew too dangerous. The danger now is that the belligerent rhetoric of the new leadership may have escalated to a degree that the country can no longer back down without a huge loss of face, which no Asian country is readily prepared to risk.

What does North Korea want? Obviously they need aid from abroad for their languishing economy, but they are not prepared to accept limitations on their own actions in order to achieve this. In addition, it is clear that Mr. Kim, like his father before him, is prepared to accept any number of famine victims to maintain his position. It looks as though the only thing which would satisfy North Korea is an explicit guarantee, backed by the USA, China, and possibly Russia and Japan, of the continued existence of the DPRK as a separate state under the Kim dynasty.

Now, as North Korea is a UN member, one might think this reasonable and no more than any country would expect. But the DPRK has a unique position in that the reunification issue is central: surely the ideal resolution of the issues resulting from the Korean War would be a unified Korea. And, despite China's continuing support for the DPRK, China is surely aware that only this outcome could ensure peace on the peninsula, a withdrawal of foreign troops, and a removal of nuclear weapons.

Secondly, it is a fact that North Korea remains a focus for regional instability. Without reference to the DPRK's internal policies, which are problematic enough and generate streams of refugees into China and South Korea, it is far from clear that the preservation of the status quo on the peninsula is a desirable outcome.

So, if the status quo is unsustainable, what needs to be done, and by whom? This is the really difficult question for China. Firstly, the world is looking to China to take a lead in creating a lasting solution to this problem. This view is frequently based on a misperception of the relationship between China and the DPRK; some Westerners think that China is in complete control, and if she does not take action it is simply because she does not want change. But China has very little leverage over the DPRK, and no way of enforcing her will over Kim's leadership. Any significant Chinese pressure might lead to either collapse or explosion (possibly both); so no pressure can be applied. China knows that she will be the nation most affected should the security situation get out of hand, and so an extremely cautious policy is the only choice available.

Secondly, China is constrained by a long-held habit of thought, one which found its expression in the "Five Principles of Peaceful Coexistence": the idea that it is simply wrong for one country to interfere with another, and that all regimes, no matter what their provenance and behaviour, must be treated as equals. Therefore, whatever difficulties are caused by the Kim regime, China and the rest of the world have no alternative to coexisting peacefully with it.

The question which now looms is: how compatible is this principled attitude with the practicalities of the situation? The alternative to China's taking action to restrain the DPRK may not be in action at all; if further peaceful coexistence is deemed impossible, it may be action by other parties, possibly the U.S., possibly Japan, possibly both in concert. This would obviously be contrary to China's interests, and it is certainly not what the Americans want, as evidenced by Secretary of State Kerry's recent visit to China. But if it appears essential that action must be taken and China is unwilling to take it, this may be the result. North Korea may be the hardest challenge the Five Principles of Peaceful Coexistence has ever faced.

The author is a columnist with China.org.cn. For more information please visit:

http://www.china.org.cn/opinion/timcollard.htm

Opinion articles reflect the views of their authors, not necessarily those of China.org.cn.

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