The pendulum of Sino-US relations

By Wang Chong
0 Comment(s)Print E-mail China.org.cn, July 30, 2014
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Coming together [By Zhai Haijun/China.org.cn]

 Coming together [By Zhai Haijun/China.org.cn]

From what I can see, the relationship between China and the United States is drifting apart day by day. Some say the Sino-U.S. relationship is like a pendulum; it will swing to the left for a short distance, then swing to the other side for a while, and eventually come back to the original point. But I see it has swung to a further point now. The mutual trust between the two countries is falling and most importantly, conflicts between the two countries about values are becoming increasingly obvious. A decade ago, we approved of American values on the Internet and on other public occasions. Now however, China is more conservative in its politics. The core element that influences the relationship between the two countries is values. This is very important. The other indication that the two countries are drifting farther apart is that China and Russia are becoming closer.

Second, on the surface, China and the United States appear to be collaborating well. But there are profound differences on core issues. For example, the China-U.S. Strategic and Economic Dialogue appeared to have gone well, and more than 100 agreements were signed, including ones relating to cultural exchanges. It looked like a fruitful summit. But if you look closely, those achievements were not on key issues, including the South China Sea issue, the Syria issue, the North Korea issue, the Tibet issue and the Taiwan issue. These issues were put aside. But when you put issues aside, they will pile up, like throwing things into a corner. Then you will find that it has become more and more difficult to resolve the problems, even when you are willing to do so. Mutual conflicts and mistrusts have just been pushed back and core issues have still not been resolved.

Third, the China-U.S. relationship is a strategic game, or we can say it is "drifting," and this process may be long. It may not be like the Thucydides Trap, which suggests that China and the United States will inevitably go to war to decide who is number one. The fall of the dominant power may take 30 to 50 years, even 100 years. And the most important task of such a hegemon is how to keep the second most powerful country a distance behind; or how to unite the number three and number four countries to get rid of the number two. Developing itself peacefully and dealing with the Sino-U.S. relationship in the future, therefore, is especially significant for China. The game may last many years, and a peaceful transformation is possible. The dominance has come from the United Kingdom to the United States, and it is possible for a multi-polar world with many countries to govern the world together in the future.

What's more, all of China's problems are our own. What China will develop into and what path we will follow all depend on us. For example, how to control and maintain a reasonable level of democratic development, what kind of nation we are going to become, are problems we need to think about. The core values of socialism include democracy, freedom, wealth, strength, and the rule of law. It would be very good if we could achieve all of those. We do not have to be number one in the world, because if the people do not live happily, what is the point of being number one? So China's core issues depend on us.

The alliance between Japan and the United States does not mean that the United States will stand by Japan in every situation. China will not see Japan and the United States as an unbreakable iron board due to the alliance, because every country has its own independent diplomacy. Japan actually is a nation with a very strong sense of pride. It is only matter of time before Japan conducts its own independent diplomacy. That is to say, as the United States falls and China rises, Japan will also rise. But currently, the strongest of the three is still the United States. How the three countries will play in the game, and how they will work with the other leading powers in the world, will be a fun thing to watch.

The author is a current affairs observer and commentator.

The article was first published in Chinese and translated by Zhang Rui.

Opinion articles reflect the views of their authors, not necessarily those of China.org.cn.

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