What Netanyahu needs to understand about Iran
- By Sumantra Maitra
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E-mail China.org.cn, March 6, 2015
It is important to remember that in geopolitics, the ultimate aim of any regime is to ensure its own survival. No matter how rhetorically bombastic a regime may get, most of its rhetoric is usually targeted toward domestic consumption. Regimes that are especially theocratic or cultist must depend on a near-divine mirage of strength or risk implosion. Only the external acts of a regime show whether it is rational, and the Iranian mullahs haven't shown any jihadist, suicidal or irrational tendencies. They have acted fairly instinctively against the much more revolting and brutal Islamic State and other Sunni non-state terrorist organizations.
Iran never intended to subvert international order or the Westphalian state system, as ISIS is currently doing. President Obama mentioned that in his speech as well, saying "[The Iranians] are strategic, and they are not impulsive. They have a world view and they see their interests, and they respond to costs and benefits … They are a large, powerful country that sees itself as an important player on the world stage and, I do not think, has a suicide wish and can respond to incentives."
There is one more important factor. Israel is not the Israel of 1948, a beacon of democracy and equality whose founding fathers wanted Palestinian Arabs to have similar status with Jews in the country. It is now a quasi-democratic country that is increasingly turning towards becoming an occupation state with a siege mentality solely hinged on survivalist instincts, even though it has the single most powerful armed forces in the entire region and has the active diplomatic backing and military support of the world's preponderant military power. The United States doesn't need to protect Israel, nor is it the top priority to balance against a region completely against the United States. Times change, and the geopolitical character of a region also changes.
Iran, on the other hand – even with its abhorrent human rights records against sexual minorities and religious and political opposition – is an oasis of stability and forms a natural counterweight in a region plagued by increasing Sunni jihadism. As General Martin Dempsey mentioned, Iranian involvement in Iraq and Syria against Islamic State is not necessarily a bad thing. It is helpful to have a regional power stabilizing the situation, lowering the material and financial cost burden on the United States and other Western powers and allowing them to focus on other important things.
Netanyahu needs to understand a simple principle of geopolitics: an Iranian and American rapprochement is ultimately beneficial to Israel. It will automatically negate the Israeli-Iranian rivalry, might stop Iranian from influencing Hezbollah, and will allow Iran to be contained and become a responsible nuclear power, which will further stabilize the region and balance the rising jihadist tide. To quote Sun Tzu, "the supreme art of war is to subdue the enemy, without fighting…" Bibi should heed this centuries-old wisdom.
The writer is a columnist with China.org.cn. For more information please visit: http://www.china.org.cn/opinion/SumantraMaitra.htm
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