The British election results are out, with a roaring victory for the ruling Conservatives under Prime Minister David Cameron, a shocked and routed Labour party, the Liberal Democrats virtually annihilated and UK Independence Party and Scotland controlled almost solely by the Scottish Nationalist Party.

The election, often deemed as the most important and influential election in modern Britain is also particularly harsh to the pollsters and pundits, especially on the left, as no one predicted a Conservative government, much less a scale of victory which will give the Conservatives a singular majority in the 650 seat parliament. The motherland of modern parliamentary democracy chose to give the reigns of the Union back to the most successful democratic political party in the world ever. It also leaves a Britain, largely bipolar, broken on the northern border on nationalistic lines, pensive about the massive changes about to come, and confrontational to Europe and the EU.

Your humble correspondent predicted a Conservative win, although it is fair for the sake of journalistic ethics to mention that even he was astounded by the margin of the win. Middle England rose up to provide solid defense for the stoically reserved David Cameron, who ran a campaign hammering on two single points, and seemed to get his words through to the people. The campaign platform of an economy that was recovering, and the Labour plan for increased taxation and increased welfare would jeopardize that plan seemed to resonate with the common voters. Also, the rise of the Scottish Nationalists and the chance of a coalition between the SNP and Labour, with the Labour government being mostly a puppet government with the scruff of Ed Milliband’s neck being firmly in the fists of Nicola Sturgeon was a visualization that many in Britain rejected.

The rise of the SNP also spelled riot for Labour, as they were massacred in Scotland, traditionally a left heartland. The SNP campaigned on a similar economic ground as Labour, but appealed to the more radical nationalist and solidified Scottish population by stoking baser independence instincts, even after a narrow defeat in the Scottish independence referendum. However, the SNP managed to unify the nationalist votes in a single block, while Labour, the Lib-Dems and the Tories divided the unionist votes, resulting in a landslide with SNP winning 56 out of 59 seats in Scotland. The SNP campaign and constant anti-English vitriol and open challenge that they would dominate an SNP-Labour coalition, also ironically unified English Tory voters in northern England. Another factor leading to the Tory dominance was the ever misunderstood and underrated “shy Tory” factor, the deeply conservative heartland voters, once described as a “silent majority behind lace curtains,” which were influential in the election win of John Major against all odds in 1992, as well as this time, even though with lesser margins. This major swing block is never usually calculated by pollsters and is not often considered a variable in surveys or opinion polls.

The right-wing populist eurosceptic party UKIP, under Nigel Farage, managed to win over 3.9 million votes, more than SNP and LibDems combined, but was a casualty of British “first past the post” system, and managed to score just one seat in parliament. The percentage of votes also diminished from an expected 20 percent to around 12, as a good amount of UKIP supporters went back to the Tory fold, once they realized that voting UKIP would be a waste and might ease Labour’s return to power. However, it would be foolish to neglect the extreme euroscepticism this verdict is offering, combining the Tory and UKIP vote percentage in Britain.

Perhaps the most heartbreaking were the losses by the Liberal Democrats, who were toasted from 57 seats last time to a mere eight. The Lib Dem leader, possibly the sharpest and wittiest politician in modern Britain, gave a tearful speech of resignation (the Labour leader Miliband, and UKIP leader Farage also resigned almost immediately after the results). Nick Clegg is often misunderstood as a figure who was bought by the vices of power, but that is an incorrect analysis. In the last election, joining the Tory coalition was the right thing to do, after Britain rejected stagnated Labour economic policies, and proving the idea of a self-centered politician wrong, Clegg and his comrades actually stuck with the Tories through thick and thin, even during contentious issues like the university tuition fee increase and the Scottish referendum, knowing that it would cost them dearly. Perhaps posterity will judge him kindly.

The war of Europe has just begun for David Cameron, as he promised to hold a EU membership referendum within two years. Tax cuts, the challenges of job creation, the housing shortage and massive welfare cuts also loom. Confrontation with Scottish nationalists under Nicola Sturgeon will also prove to be major headache in the already strained social fabric of the union. But most importantly, British Conservative and rightwing credibility is on line on the European question. The British people are against this economic wreck of the European super state, and they have given Cameron an ultimatum to act on it, by electing him on his pledge to redefine British membership of the EU. If he is prudent, he should take this opportunity and redefine history.

The writer is a columnist with China.org.cn.

For more information please visit: http://www.china.org.cn/opinion/SumantraMaitra.htm

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