British elections and the European Union
- By Sajjad Malik
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E-mail China.org.cn, May 12, 2015
Cameron is a moderate Conservative, which may not be a positive attribute during the heady days ahead. He may wish to be part of the EU, but he will have to address the concerns of his ultra-conservative supporters and fellow party members. The possible referendum – which would take place about two years from now toward the end of 2017 – would place unnecessary strain on the EU and sap away energy that the group needs to address several economic and political issues. The process leading to the referendum may also sidetrack the country's real issues.
At the end of the day, nothing notable will have been achieved. The confusion will ultimately weaken the U.K. and will wreck the EU in the process, heavily impacting a variety of European financial institutions. The result of the referendum will also be highly unpredictable, creating more confusion. Even a vote in favor of continued EU membership will not resolve the issue, and new demands will be listed.
The British-EU tangle is not the only worry for the new government, as it still needs to fix the economy and maintain its position as a credible power in order to be relevant in international affairs. Britain has slowly been losing its influence and prestige since the end of World War II, and the process has only been hastened by the rise of Germany and its burgeoning economic and political clout under Angela Merkel. Germany was at the forefront in the recent Ukraine crisis, reining in Russian leader Vladimir Putin with the able support of France while London was conspicuously absent from the radar.
The outcome of British elections could be a threat not only to the future of the EU but to the future of the U.K. as well. The victory of the Scottish National Party, which emerged as the third largest party in Parliament, will not end with the debate over Scottish independence. It may be just the beginning, and a new referendum over the future of Scotland may not be far away under the changed circumstances.
Some analysts are already toying with the idea of Scotland joining the EU as an independent country to fill the vacancy created by the possible ouster of Cameron's U.K.
The writer is a columnist with China.org.cn. For more information please visit: http://www.china.org.cn/opinion/SajjadMalik.htm
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