China and India, dawn of the 'Asian Century'
- By Dan Steinbock
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E-mail China.org.cn, May 14, 2015
Last January, Prime Minister Modi and President Obama issued a joint statement declaring an interest in ensuring freedom of navigation in the South China Sea. In Beijing, the declaration triggered old concerns about India’s readiness to participate in U.S.-led containment alliance. In New Delhi, it may have been motivated by Modi’s concern about China’s increasing proximity, and hedging between East and West.
Recently, the Modi administration has also introduced the Mausam and Spice Route projects, which seek to re-connect and re-establish connections between countries of the Indian Ocean Region. However, these routes can be seen as complementary to China’s Maritime Silk Road.
Asia’s supra- and sub-regional revolution
Many of the countries that are part of the “One Belt, One Road” vision are also founding members of the recently-founded Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB); and so is India.
In the broader region, a key role also belongs to China’s BRIC partners, including India, Russia, South Africa and Brazil, which have all invested in the new BRICS development bank.
There are also evolving sub-regional networks, which in China are officially seen as “closely related to the Belt and Road Initiative.” In these networks, India’s role may prove even more critical, whether directly, indirectly, or both.
The Bangladesh-China-India-Myanmar Forum for Regional Cooperation (BCIM) seeks greater integration of trade and investment between these four countries. Aiming at the first expressway between India and China, the BCIM Economic Corridor is designed to pass through Myanmar and Bangladesh.
The BCIM has potential to boost industrial transfer in the core areas, especially as labor costs rise in China. Accordingly, India’s isolated eastern and northeastern states stand to benefit from higher trade and connectivity with China and the rest of Asia.
Eventually, the BCIM could link three vital free trade areas (FTAs), including the ASEAN FTA, the ASEAN-China FTA and the ASEAN-India FTA, thus serving as the nexus of some of the largest FTAs in the world.
At the eve of ‘Asian Century’
Of course, there is also concern on both Chinese and Indian sides, due to the lingering border disputes, the shadow of the 1962 war, and the pivot of multiple powers to Asia.
Nevertheless, the supra- and sub-regional initiatives hold the potential of accelerating modernization across East, Southeast and South Asia, which would support the ‘Modi momentum’ in India.
Xi and Modi are the first leaders of their respective countries who were born after World War II. Both are pragmatic. Each believes in the historical legacy of his nation, its culture and promise, and is able and willing to cooperate with the international community.
Xi is the first Chinese leader who is supporting the mainland’s greater role in the international arena; but in emerging economies’ terms. In turn, Modi is the first Indian leader who has studied the lessons of China’s special economic zones, ever since he served as chief minister of Gujarat.
For the first time in two centuries, China and India are standing at the dawn of a new ‘Asian Century.’
The author is a columnist with China.org.cn. For more information please visit: http://www.china.org.cn/opinion/DanSteinbock.htm
This post was first published at Chinausfocus.com. To see the original version please visit: http://www.chinausfocus.com/foreign-policy/china-and-india-at-the-dawn-of-the-asian-century/
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