G7, Ukraine and Russia: rhetoric and reality
- By Sumantra Maitra
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E-mail China.org.cn, June 10, 2015
Secondly, the rebel arms used in the conflict are not weapons produced for export. They are only used by Russian armed forces. Despite all of this, the G7 didn't mention Russian forces, but consistently referred to rebels backed by Russia, basically signaling détente toward Russia.
There is also some significant disagreement as far as sanctions are concerned. The United States is in favor of sending arms to the Ukrainian government on a lend-lease basis. Both the U.S. and the United Kingdom also already have military trainers on the ground to train the Ukrainian army. But Germany and France are opposed to sending arms to Ukraine, as they think it will escalate the conflict. Angela Merkel was in contact with Vladimir Putin during the early days of the conflict, and she still maintains a back channel of communication with him, but Germany's stance has hardened considerably since MH17 was shot down over Ukraine with heavy European casualties, the majority of whom were Dutch.
There will be considerable internal dispute within the EU if Russia decides to escalate the conflict in Ukraine and further sanctions are called for to counter such a move. Countries like the Czech Republic, Greece and Hungary are against further sanctions on Russia, and the EU cannot authorize sanctions unless there is a unanimous vote. Russia knows that in order to stop sanctions, it only needs to have the backing of one EU country. It just might do that, testing the Union's resolve, signaling the rebels to escalate the conflict.
Another important factor is public opinion against Russia within the EU. A recent research paper by the Institute of Modern Russia suggests that the Kremlin is waging wide-ranging asymmetric warfare that is not just being fought on the battlefields of Ukraine with tanks and rocket launchers. Russia has mastered the art of disinformation, propaganda, and funding populist political parties on both sides of the spectrum. According to the paper, Russia funded Green parties across Europe to start anti-fracking protests so that Russia doesn't lose its oil and gas competitive advantage. It also funds extreme right-wing parties like France's Front National and Hungary's Jobbik, which holds Eurosceptic views. Russian media is also feverishly working on spreading a counter-narrative of the Ukrainian crisis that has resulted in the "muddying" of the truth.
One can assume that despite the rhetorical bombast, the EU will be hard pressed to take any concrete steps against Russia other than nominal sanctions and a couple of additional halfhearted military exercises. No matter what the sound bites claim, the EU is far more troubled by the Islamic-State-created refugee tsunami and the upcoming Greek debt default. A slow-simmering war in a faraway land and a former enemy's return to Cold War form are the least of Western Europe's concerns now.
The writer is a columnist with China.org.cn. For more information please visit: http://www.china.org.cn/opinion/SumantraMaitra.htm
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