Trump's short-lived lead
- By Mitchell Blatt
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E-mail China.org.cn, July 16, 2015
Trump has the worst favorability rating among all the candidates, as 65 percent of Republic have an unfavorable view of Trump. According to a Bloomberg poll, 62 percent of Republicans would "never consider" voting for Trump, and a Wall Street Journal and NBC poll found that only 23 percent of Republicans could "see themselves supporting" Trump. He is already approaching his limit.
The other reason behind support for Trump reflects a problem with much of the Republican base, especially those identifying with the Tea Party. Many of these voters reflexively oppose any "establishment" Republican and will support any unhinged lunatic who goes up against party leaders, no matter what his or her viewpoint is, as long as he or she is loud and bombastic. When Trump throws around "rapist" comments about illegal immigrants from Mexico, insults journalists, and then refuses to apologize, extreme conservatives think he's "fighting."
To those voters, rhetoric is even more important than action. Never mind that calmer language would make it easier for a candidate to get elected without embarrassing himself and getting dropped by every company with which he has a partnership, as has been the case for Trump. The fact that Trump is facing a major backlash only solidifies his base's support, because in their eyes this makes him a valiant truth-teller.
The strange thing is that Trump's publicly stated positions on many issues aren't even very conservative, and many are at odds with his claims to be against illegal immigration and foreign trade. As recently as 2012, when the immigration debate had been going for years, Trump advocated giving illegal immigrants a path to citizenship, a position that conservatives often assail Marco Rubio and Jeb Bush for having held. Trump's clothing line was being manufactured in China, while he attacked China for producing products that Americans buy. Republicans rate the national debt as one of the most important issues, and yet Trump's businesses have gone bankrupt multiple times. He's also thrown his massive wealth into helping Democrats get elected, having contributed thousands of dollars to Hillary Clinton's Senate campaign and $25,000 to Democratic campaign committees in the 2000's.
In 2008, Michele Bachmann and Herman Cain, right-wing candidates with a passion and flair for colorful sound bites, also did well for short periods of time before flaming out. Donald Trump is much more famous due to his reality TV show "The Apprentice," which NBC canceled this year after 14 seasons.
It is highly likely that Trump will similarly slump later this year. As candidates begin to drop out after losing in the early primaries, support will shift to a more mainstream candidate at odds with Trump. Marco Rubio and Scott Walker are both polling at close to 9 percent, and very few of their voters would likely support Trump. Carly Fiorina, Chris Christie, John Kasich, Lindsey Graham, and Bobby Jindal all hold under 4 percent of the vote, but they account for a combined 11 percent.
There's nothing Trump likes more than the spotlight, and right now he's preening in it. But it's highly unlikely that his moment of fame will last.
The author is a columnist with China.org.cn. For more information please visit: http://www.china.org.cn/opinion/MitchellBlatt.htm
Opinion articles reflect the views of their authors, not necessarily those of China.org.cn.
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