From a political perspective, Russians have positioned themselves in the frontline of Middle Eastern politics. It's a region which has, thus far, been shaped by either Western action or inaction. Former Soviet foreign minister Andrei Gromyko was known to say that nothing happens without Soviet involvement. The Russian president is playing the same game. For him it seems like having a stake in every incident is more important as a matter of pride and principle than completely shaping the event itself. Already, Turkish and Israeli armed forces are being careful before they operate anywhere and are in close contact with the Russians. Countries from Egypt to Iraq to Germany, traditional American allies, are also frustrated at American half-heartedness and political paralysis and are slowly inching towards Russia who is partially filling the vacuum in the Middle East. This is a significant development in a region where Russian/Soviet influence had been next to nil since the early 1970s.
However, Russia is also losing quite a bit. Firstly, Russia is alienating the world's major Muslim population, most importantly the Sunnis, while taking the side of the Shia Iran and Assad. The resulting antagonism might make Russia a prime target of Sunni Jihadism, especially in the Caucasus and in central Asia. Russia is also fighting an unsustainable campaign. The Russian economy is in its death throes, and their increasing interventions around the world are not something Russia can carry on for long. Moreover, if Russia is bogged down in the Middle East, first in Syria and then in Iraq, Chechnya, Dagestan and Central Asia, fighting Jihadism alone with a dying demographic and economy, it will be the death knell for the Russian regime.
Putin is a lonely man, internationally, albeit he is a smart man. He knows how to exploit American dithering and indifference and European confusion. He also took the fall of Gaddafi rather personally, and to him, order is something worth fighting for against Chaos. But in international relations, time can be both his greatest friend and ultimate enemy. If he really is that smart, he should also know how to quit while he's ahead.
The writer is a columnist with China.org.cn. For more information please visit: http://www.china.org.cn/opinion/SumantraMaitra.htm
Opinion articles reflect the views of their authors, not necessarily those of China.org.cn.
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