What Obama can't say openly
- By Sumantra Maitra
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E-mail China.org.cn, October 25, 2015
However, the similarities end there. Obama actively wants to disown the Gulf states as well as a blatantly out of control Saudi Arabia, known for their medieval human rights record, their funding of terrorism and Wahhabism abroad, and give the Middle East some sort of balance with a regional rapprochement with Iran. The U.S. is also not dependent on Saudi oil and gas anymore, and wants to focus on East and South Asia for trade. But that is not being helped as thousands of Iranian troops are pouring into Syria. Under Obama's reign, the special relationship with Netanyahu has gone down the drain, and has Israel pivoted towards Asia and Russia as well, both militarily and economically. But both of these dealings with Iran and Israel have proved to be a hard sell at home, with bipartisan opposition to Obama.
Perhaps his legacy will be defined by the Middle East and will also be the most misunderstood. Obama wanted to extricate America out of the region. But he was influenced heavily by his first term na?ve and idealistic interventionist foreign policy team to back the Arab Spring, which resulted in the toppling of both Mubarak and Gaddafi, two brutal, but secular strongmen, and both of whom, for practical reasons, turned pro-west and anti-jihadist during their late years. Egypt is now suffering under a heavy Islamic insurgency with the ruling military class not forgetting American betrayal, and Libya is a total vortex, a living hell with a multi-faceted insurgency, and the origin point of the biggest migration crisis Europe is now facing. These events shocked Obama, and solidified his idea that American intervention in the region has never been a good thing, and he refused to enforce his now infamous red-line when chemical weapons were used in Syria.
What he genuinely believes, but cannot say openly, is that Russian involvement in the region is a personal win for the West. He believes it gives the U.S. a genuine opportunity to look elsewhere and turn a blind eye and even escape the Arabian maelstrom which has bogged down American troops and resources for over a decade. Obama thinks Russia is eventually going to overstretch and drain itself in its Neo-Tsarist ambitions. With the Russian economy tanking and Russian soldiers returning home in body bags, the country would face the greatest Jihadist threat in two decades. America could concentrate and move eastward and focus on trade. He also thinks that it would ultimately expose the hypocrisy of the anti-American crowd in Europe, as they stay eerily quiet about the indiscriminate bloodshed in the region without any concernfor collateral damage caused by other Great powers other than the U.S.. He wants to say that the U.S. doesn't or shouldn't care about how many people died in the region as that won't affect U.S. security or geo-strategy or even hamper America's standing in the world. Rather, if America takes responsibility and fails, it is even more damaging for perception. Unfortunately, with the elections nearing, Obama is not free to speak his mind, which might damage the prospect of the Democrats after his divisive eight year reign.
The writer is a columnist with China.org.cn. For more information please visit:
http://www.china.org.cn/opinion/SumantraMaitra.htm
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