China and ISIS: Things to consider
- By Sumantra Maitra
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E-mail China.org.cn, November 26, 2015
One needs to remember two things. Firstly, the success of ISIS depends on recruiting fresh manpower, when it is being constantly bombed and decimated. ISIS can only maintain a steady recruitment of foreign fighters, if it can provoke foreign powers to wage war against it, thus justifying a backlash. Second, other great powers are already engaged in bombing ISIS in the Middle East, in a multi-directional conflict, which also has its individual separate alliances.
Now, if China decides to join this war, either actively or through indirect supportive, it would be considered as a legitimate great power projecting its power abroad. It is not new for Chinese forces to operate abroad. China has taken an active part in anti-piracy campaigns, and peacekeeping operations in Africa.
Just like Russian forces are possibly testing their new weapons in Syria, and taking this opportunity to showcase their military prowess in the world, China can do so if she wants. On the other hand, China can also take supporting role, such as providing supply ships and transports for the powers already fighting ISIS. It will increase Chinese camaraderie with the U.S. backed coalition, as well as France or Russia.
On the other hand, China will then come under increased scrutiny, not just by the world media, on how its armed forces are functioning, and their command and control and supply and logistics all will come under scrutiny. Similarly, there is a threat of a backlash from the Jihadist elements, in and around China.
NATO headquarters in Brussels has been in a lockdown for over three days, as the Belgian police and security forces search for the remaining Paris attackers. If China wants to commit itself to an anti-ISIS fight, then it should also be aware and prepared of what might come in return.
However, the most important thing is not that decision. Rather, it is to control the narrative. History has suggested that any government launching a long term war, without any fixed end point, with a lot of bombastic rhetoric, risks their reputation, if things don't go their way. The U.S. and NATO faced it in Iraq. Russia and Iran are now facing it, as Assad's government forces are still stuck without advancing significantly. China should avoid the trap of rhetorical bombast, regardless of what actions it chooses to take.
The writer is a columnist with China.org.cn. For more information please visit:
http://www.china.org.cn/opinion/SumantraMaitra.htm
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