Geopolitical threats of 2016
- By Sumantra Maitra
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E-mail China.org.cn, December 27, 2015
That's what is happening, as we see borders are being redrawn, and states actively pursuing different interests and goals antagonistic to each other, which might result in intrastate conflict.
Sometimes, uncontrollable junior allies may end up dragging bigger powers into conflict. We saw Turkey recklessly shooting down a Russian war plane over the Syria-Turkey border. In response, the Russian president has now armed his forces to the teeth and ordered them to take counter measures. This has got every possibility of escalating into a NATO-Russia conflict.
Similarly, we see Israel bombing Hezbollah in Syria, Hezbollah fighting alongside regular Iranian and Russian troops, or U.S. warships channeling through the South China Sea. All these incidents can snowball to a bigger crisis potentially.
There are smaller crises as well. Venezuela looks like it might face social upheaval, as new administration tries to divert the country's economic direction. Unemployment across Europe is still terrible, and economic growth is unlikely given current geo-political and social scenario. Ukraine is still a corrupt basket case with political infighting, and a simmering war in the East, with no signs of reforms. Greece will have to decide on its next debt payment, as India moves towards a more Hindu nationalist future with rising intolerance against minorities.
All this paints a picture of doom; but there's hope. There is consensus about carbon emission, and global warming. There will be a new government in U.S., and regardless of Democrats or Republicans, there will not be an ideology-induced policy paralysis like the Obama administration continuing.
Barring major problems, major devastating great power wars seem unlikely, whether between NATO-Russia or between China-U.S., as all these countries understand the risk and mutual destruction that waits. Our species will continue to stumble and stagger into a hopeful new year.
The writer is a columnist with China.org.cn. For more information please visit:
http://www.china.org.cn/opinion/SumantraMaitra.htm
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