Al-Nimr execution: Middle East sectarian destabilization continues
- By Sumantra Maitra
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E-mail China.org.cn, January 5, 2016
Saudi Arabia's executions come unexpected. Al-Nimr was sentenced to death in 2012, but no one predicted that the first day of 2016 would be witness to this mass execution. It sends some messages.
The first message is obviously from Saudi Arabia to Iran. It is a clear signal, that the Saudis will continue to oppose real and perceived Iranian influence in the region, and will follow strict rules of deterrence against Iranian backed forces and individuals. There would be no let down of the Saudi-led Sunni block against ceding ground to any Iranian actors be they in Yemen, Iraq or Syria, or in Saudi's backyard in the Gulf states of Bahrain and Qatar. It is also a signal towards dissident forces inside Saudi Arabia, regardless of them being Jihadists or not, that any opposition to the Kingdom would be dealt with mercilessly. All the hopes of Saudi Arabia modernizing, with women being able to vote, will now prove futile.
It is also a signal to the West and to other Sunni forces in play in the Middle East. The signal to the West is one of displeasure with their perceived détente with Shia Iran and the nuclear deal. Iran has continued to build missiles and work on missile ranges and development, even after the nuclear deal has been finalized. The reason is simple; the Iranian air force is old and wrecked due to decades of sanctions. Missiles are a cheaper, expendable and easier alternative of deterrence for Iran, when they are spending so much money in waging a war in Iraq and propping up the Assad regime. However, the Saudis see this as a Western rapprochement to Iran and are not happy with it.
The other thing is that this will result in protests in the Sunni kingdoms, which might give Saudi Arabia more power to crackdown on them both internally and externally, or intervene directly. As a result, no one, least of all the West, would be willing to stop them. This execution, with bodies being hung from gibbets, will be seen as a direct challenge to Tehran, who will look weak if they don't retaliate in some measure, either directly, or asymmetrically. One can safely expect riots and escalation immediately. The start of 2016 is going to be no different from the end of 2015 for the Middle East.
Sumantra Maitra is a columnist with China.org.cn. For more information please visit:
http://www.china.org.cn/opinion/SumantraMaitra.htm
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