To compete or cooperate, that is the question…
- By Sumantra Maitra
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E-mail China.org.cn, February 27, 2016
However, two recent academic papers also took a clear binary view of the situation. The first said the U.S. was about to face a choice of either accepting Chinese hegemony or pushing back. The second, while more balanced in its measurement of threat, was clear that change was happening.
Now, the problem with these binary assessments is in perpetuating the same cyclical scenario that brought great powers to the verge of war before, along with insisting on labeling one side bad and the other good in a situation where conflict is inevitable.
However, China and the U.S. are bound by trade ties in a global economy much more than any adversarial great powers of the past. With the Chinese transformation to a market economy, China and the U.S. need each other more than one could ever have imagined, regardless of what Donald Trump claims. A realistic assessment shows the Asia-Pacific region is not doomed to have a conflict if safeguards are at place.
Secondly, global economic ties have accentuated allies with no interest in conflict. Can you imagine Australia and New Zealand, whose economies are intrinsically tied to both U.S. and China, taking sides in a conflict started by some small states in South China Sea, or a situation where Germany and Britain, both wooing China for more financial investment, send warships to South China Sea, or the parties to AIIB taking sides in a geo-political conflict over some rocks in East China Sea? It is farfetched and implausible, and highly unlikely.
That brings us to the causes of conflict in the war games: All the conflicts were started not by the great powers themselves, but by smaller powers supplying the first spark to the tinder. The bigger powers are then forced to take sides, either directly intervening due to military or treaty obligations, or providing tacit support (two world wars show this).
That's a scenario which needs to be avoided and can be avoided. However, dialogues and open channels are needed, as is a clear understanding or each other's perceptions and resolve. And here's also a word of advice to the policy makers of great powers which has smaller allies in the region: Don't encourage them to start a conflict, which you will not be able to control.
Sumantra Maitra is a columnist with China.org.cn. For more information please visit:
http://www.china.org.cn/opinion/SumantraMaitra.htm
Opinion articles reflect the views of their authors only, not necessarily those of China.org.cn.
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