The perfect 'security dilemma' in the South China Sea

By Sumantra Maitra
0 Comment(s)Print E-mail China.org.cn, March 8, 2016
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India is the odd one out in this balancing maneuver. One can remember, the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue started by Japan, which included Australia, U.S. and India, but fizzled out due to the reticence of the Indian administration to antagonize China. India realized that it needed Chinese trade and FDI more than being a frontline state in this coalition.

That non-aligned realist stance seems to be shifting. India has traditionally shied away from being in any coalition, but if the reports of the planned joint naval patrols are true, then that nonaligned policy will be buried.

It would then lead to a tit-for-tat asymmetric escalation between India and China. China can base submarines in the Gwadar port of Pakistan, as well as in Eastern African coastline, overlooking Mumbai. Since India is socially much more diverse, with a chaotic social fabric, there might be internal troubles when it comes to relations with China.

Sri Lanka can also host Chinese navy ships, as might the Maldives, both right in the Indian backyard. Similarly, India can sell Brahmos missiles to Vietnam, or start patrolling and promote FONOPS in the Malacca Straits.

The point is none of this is beneficial for any of the actors involved. India needs to understand that its best interests lie in economic development and assistance from both United States and China, without joining any camp. It is the careful balance that is the hardest to maintain.

Similarly, the South China Sea need not be a hot conflict. In 12 instances of security dilemma in the world, there was no war in at least four cases. The Thucydides Trap is not inevitable. The biggest example of two major power rivalries without outright war is of course the Cold War, which formed the most stable binary polar balancing.

If Soviet Union and U.S. can avoid war, so can China and India or any other U.S. backed balancing alliance. The key is open channels of communication which diffuses tensions in the region, and deescalates crises. Thankfully there are calls for direct negotiations between China and the U.S., which should be encouraged.

Sumantra Maitra is a columnist with China.org.cn. For more information please visit:

http://www.china.org.cn/opinion/SumantraMaitra.htm

Opinion articles reflect the views of their authors only, not necessarily those of China.org.cn.

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