Conflict in Syria: Putin's plan
- By Sumantra Maitra
0 Comment(s)
Print
E-mail China.org.cn, March 17, 2016
After the annexation of Crimea, and the fiasco of East Ukraine, the now rejected Novorossiya project, and the shooting down of the Malaysian airliner, Russia turned into an international pariah, where even the strongest backers in Europe including Chancellor Merkel, started to rethink their ties. Russia also needed to save its Middle Eastern military warm water base, and client state in Syria. Russia needed a seat at the negotiation table deciding the fate of Syria in a post Assad scenario, and it needed to prove its status as a great power. On top of that, the secondary goals were to test the battle readiness of its troops in the theater of war, far away in the arid, desert conditions of the Middle East, to show and test a new array of weaponry, to test its force projection capabilities and rapid deployment capabilities. The tertiary goals were to probe the United States and find out if the U.S. is really serious about leaving the Middle East to regional powers, and to portray Russia as a serious player in security stabilization in Middle East.
It can be concluded that Russia succeeded in portraying itself as a power player in the region. The renewed ties with Iraq and Egypt, and the tactical alliance with Iran point to that conclusion. Russia also succeeded in showcasing its new weapons, including the sea skimming Kalibr cruise missiles. It might, in future, use these demonstrations for arms export, as well as devise doctrines for future long range expeditions. Russian forces have survived grueling expeditions, with negligible casualties when it comes to human lives. Russia did achieve in making the conflict more two-sided, stabilizing the Assad regime which was looking like it was about to fall in 2016. Now, with the moderate rebels diminished considerably in size, there is a choice between ISIS and the regime, and the choice for the international community is already struggling with the refugee problem and the rise of the populist far right.
Russia chose the perfect time to get out. It jeopardized the entire idea of Obama's interview that Middle East security should be delegated to other powers, or in other words, let Russia be bogged down. Russia knew its limitations, and was already suffering from oil glut. Putin was aware that his soldiers are in Crimea, Ukraine as well as Syria around the same time within the scope of one year. By diverting the world's attention to Syria and finding a place for itself at the high table, Russia legitimized the Ukrainian situation, changed its international status and stumped the Obama administration. It also successfully made Europe understand, that regardless of what they feel about Russia, they need Russia. In short, this geopolitical event had a clear winner, and that was Russia. Russia also signaled that it is responding to the détente overtures of the West, but is fully capable to reverting back to the "New Cold War" model at a moment's notice. Other powers should take note.
Sumantra Maitra is a columnist with China.org.cn. For more information please visit:
http://www.china.org.cn/opinion/SumantraMaitra.htm
Opinion articles reflect the views of their authors only, not necessarily those of China.org.cn.
Go to Forum >>0 Comment(s)