Taliban's Omari spring offensive
- By Sajjad Malik
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E-mail China.org.cn, April 19, 2016
Earlier, Kerry was instrumental in introducing the unity of the government between the two rival candidates after Abdullah had refused to concede defeat. However, his latest efforts have also been described as him meddling in the country's domestic affairs. The description will not help the situation of Afghanistan. The Afghans would have to evolve a credible system of governance with strong defense and an economic system to stand on its own. Unless they achieve it, external influence will continue to play its role.
The weakness of the Afghan government has been exposed in the latest attacks by the Taliban. The government is confused, while the militants are clear in the purpose of their mission, which is either to remove the government or weaken it so that it accepts their demands. We have some idea about the demands of the Taliban. For example, they want an implementation of sharia and a withdrawal of foreign troops.
The demands may not be definite as rebel groups wage armed struggles for political objectives and an adherence to demands depends on the victories won on the ground. "Operation Omari" is an effort to show progress on the battlefield to hammer hard the demands of the negotiation table.
The push for talks has not completely stalled as back channel efforts might be working. Pakistan is under pressure from the QCG countries and has been trying to arrange a meeting. However, it can force the rebels up to a point. Bringing them to the table means nothing unless there is solid hope that the talks will yield results.
This summer can prove a defining movement in Afghanistan. If the Taliban achieved tangible success on the ground, the Afghan government would be under a lot of pressure in the talks, no matter when they start. A Taliban failure would make the government bold enough to start dictating its terms. Hence, there is a need to consider "Operation Omari" with a seasoned perspective.
The key cog in the game will be the performance of the Afghan security forces and the political government. A lack of progress in tackling basic issues and a failure to hold the ground against rebel forces will make the situation more volatile.
Sajjad Malik is a columnist with China.org.cn. For more information please visit:
http://www.china.org.cn/opinion/SajjadMalik.htm
Opinion articles reflect the views of their authors, not necessarily those of China.org.cn.
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