G20 Hangzhou summit: China and the UK

By George N. Tzogopoulos
0 Comment(s)Print E-mail China.org.cn, September 4, 2016
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The photo taken on August 4 shows that the express way linking airport and Hangzhou city has been revamped for the 2016 G20 Summit set to be held in Hangzhou, capital of east China’s Zhejiang Province (XINHUA)

There are various reasons why the Hangzhou G20 summit is of unusual importance, apart from the fact of China being the host for the first time.

One is that it brings together the leaders of the world's most powerful economies for the first time since the UK Brexit referendum in June. Almost immediately after the vote, the world economy showed signs of volatility in the initial shock, such as steep stock market falls and downward pressure on the British pound's exchange rate.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) was pessimistic, its July 2016 projection laying particular emphasis on economic and political uncertainty after the UK's exit from the EU, and foreseeing anemic economic growth of 3.1 percent in 2016.

More than two months after the referendum, however, markets seem to be relatively calm and have partly absorbed the initial surprise. Thus the G20 summit offers an excellent chance for world leaders to discuss the future without being under emotional and time pressure.

The UK will be represented in the Hangzhou Meeting by its new Prime Minister Theresa May. She is already looking beyond disengagement from the EU, keen on presenting to her partners new opportunities that could arise.

Specifically, her objective is to change the agenda and show that Brexit could be a development benefiting all sides, including China and the US. British public opinion narrowly stands on her side. A recent YouGov survey showed 46 percent of respondents believed Brexit was the right decision and 42 percent considered it wrong.

China has not welcomed Brexit according to conventional wisdom, although it has never got involved in domestic developments of the UK. Most analysts believe that the bilateral dimension of the Sino-British relationship has always mirrored Beijing's will to improve its relations with the EU, further increase its investments in Europe and generally expand its presence in the Old Continent.

However, this observation can be partly challenged. China was concerned about the risk of the EU losing a powerful member-state such as the UK for several reasons, and it was not alone in this. However, this does not mean it pegged its growing relationship with the UK on such tenuous grounds.

In that regard, the evolution of Sino-British relations in previous years - especially during the administration of David Cameron - includes a distinct characteristic going beyond the potential influence the UK could exert on EU policy or even the symbolic aspects of its membership in the Union.

The UK nowadays may lack the status of previous centuries, but it remains a powerful country having special gravitas in political and economic affairs at the international level. It is therefore questionable whether it is the UK or the EU that will lose in terms of prestige in the long-term.

Within this context, comments made by some scholars that China will not any longer find London particularly attractive as an offshore renminbi center or that Chinese investments will be diverted from the UK to other European countries are premature. Almost everything will depend on the outcome of disengagement negotiations between the May government and Brussels.

Brexit requires efficient policy recommendations and responses by the relevant actors even before this outcome will be known. The UK and China can pave the way for a smooth "divorce" by practically seeking alternatives. Discussions on the occasion of the Hangzhou summit can be a good starting point.

The creation of a bilateral free trade agreement might be a model of action when unexpected developments such as Brexit take place. Although theory differs from practice, such a free trade area could break down the stereotypes in Europe and show how difficult decisions can be accelerated.

China has already signed similar accords with several countries including Iceland, Switzerland, Singapore, New Zealand and Korea. Another one with Norway is under consideration.

All in all, the G20 summit will lead participants to think out of the box in the post Brexit-era. The recent letter sent by Theresa May to China's President Xi Jinping and Premier Li Keqiang shows that she is prepared to closely work with the Chinese government on various fronts. Other partners are expected to follow her lead.

George N. Tzogopoulos is a columnist with China.org.cn. For more information please visit:

http://www.china.org.cn/opinion/GeorgeNTzogopoulos.htm

Opinion articles reflect the views of their authors, not necessarily those of China.org.cn.

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