Russia is teaching world a very old concept about war

By Sumantra Maitra
0 Comment(s)Print E-mail China.org.cn, October 24, 2016
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In recent days we have seen parallel, very different war efforts against Islamic State in Syria and in Iraq.

Russian forces are massing in front of Aleppo, with Syrian forces, Hezbollah and Iranian mercenaries. Russia's sole aircraft carrier, Admiral Kuznetsov is steaming south alongside a whole carrier battle group involving some of the best, most modern ships Russia can muster.

On the other side, around Mosul in Iraq, we are seeing American, Kurdish, Iraqi and Turkish forces, as well as Shiite militia trying to wrest control from IS of the last remaining city stronghold in the country.

It is very interesting for a political/military analyst to watch two distinctly different approaches in such a natural environment. The Russian airstrikes in Aleppo are random, and indiscriminate, sort of reminding of the pummeling of Grozny in 1999. It is brutal...and is also proving to be extremely effective, strictly militarily speaking.

The American-led effort, meanwhile, is extremely slow, and relies on precision-guided strikes totally unlike Second World War-style bombing. While the Russian side is more disciplined and coherent and seemingly united in war aims, the American effort is seriously flawed and riddled with sectarian and operational differences.

It all comes down to style. The Russian naval dispatch, including the old, rusty aircraft carrier, is essentially a show of force. Russia could have achieved the operational aims by sending more land-based planes into Syria, since it already has airbases there.

The land-based jets would also be able to carry more ammunition as they need to load less fuel than the carrier-based jets. However, the carrier operations are designed to show that Russia can operate an aircraft carrier in anger just like the Americans. Admiral Kuznetsov has never taken part in any naval battle; so this is historic.

The Syrian military has also proven to be a much more effective and disciplined force than their Iraqi counterparts. The reasons are firstly, it is a rump Alawite force, which would face annihilation if they lose; hence, they fight more determinedly. Iraqi forces, on the other hand, are complacent, knowing the U.S. will back them up whenever needed. Secondly, Syrian forces are more homogenous, the Iraqi force trying to retake Mosul is already riddled with infighting.

Yet, the biggest lesson is tactical. If one remembers, during the Iraq invasion of 2003, the operational tactic the U.S. military was supposed to use was "shock and awe" – incessant indiscriminate overpowering bombing.

How successful it was, is a matter of scholarly debate. The reason is that, no matter how powerful the bombing, it was extremely precision guided. Those affected by the bombing during Iraq 2003, were mostly Iraqi armed forces. The same is happening in Mosul, now.

The Russian operation, on the other hand, is like that of the Second World War. They don't use smart bombs and precision guided munitions, but rather old-fashioned unguided bombs with insane destructive power. Surprisingly it is effective as a psychological weapon.

The recent Russian window of peace in Aleppo was also a psychological operation. It was more of an ultimatum, to the opposing forces well aware of the Russian weapons, who now face a dilemma. Should they surrender or do they fight to the bitter end? They are also not sure of any amnesty plan, as Russian history in Grozny suggests a completely different fate.

This results in fear both among combatants, as well as inhabitants of a city who now look at the rebels as the cause for all their suffering. As Reuters recently reported, ever since Russia intervened in the war a year ago, the government side has gained the upper hand on numerous fronts, including Aleppo, something not happening in Iraq, where different forces, including the Turks and the Kurds are essentially fighting to grab as much land as they can for the post-IS vacuum.

What does it teach us, and all the countries across the world when it comes to war? It teaches us that the most potent force in war is not what weapons you use or how much of a tactical genius you are. The biggest and most potent factor in a war is how fast you can strike fear in the enemy's heart.

Psychological weapons in a war are almost as important and effective as real weapons, and it is fear that pushes opposing forces to negotiation table. Given the volatile situation of the world, policy makers would do well to take note.

Sumantra Maitra is a columnist with China.org.cn. For more information please visit:

http://www.china.org.cn/opinion/SumantraMaitra.htm

Opinion articles reflect the views of their authors only, not necessarily those of China.org.cn.

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