Obama led to Donald Trump
- By Sumantra Maitra
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E-mail China.org.cn, November 14, 2016
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U.S. President Barack Obama (R) meets with President-elect DonaldTrump to discuss transition plans in the White House Oval Office in Washington, U.S., November 10, 2016. (Xinhua/REUTERS) |
I have been critical about Obama before, and there's no point in regurgitating my old articles. Let's just say that some of his choices led to this catastrophic rejection of Western policies that we see in 2016.
When Obama came to power, he wanted to get the U.S. out of its policy of overzealous democracy promotion. The U.S. was bogged down with reforming the Middle East and promoting democracy and Obama said he would change everything and focus on the economy.
What went wrong? We'll never know. But Obama gave way to a very distinctive bipartisan American foreign policy establishment idea that has been going on since the end of cold war. In a way, the neo-conservatives and the liberal interventionists are no different, as they are both Wilsonian internationalists and believe in the moral superiority of liberal exceptionalism.
Well, this is the loudest possible rejection of that model. This year more than anything proved how much Western populations hate the democracy promotion and ceaseless war and interventions. The hints were there before, but Cameron, Sarkozy, Merkel and Obama either failed to address the concerns or didn't take them seriously. As a result, we saw even more interventions in Libya and Syria. The first one was an outright regime change, and the second one a slow burn with help from Arab allies.
What happened? The entire region from Tunisia to Iraq was up in flames and what resulted was a movement of people unprecedented in human history.
This has changed the social dynamics in Europe and further increased pressure on the liberal order. It is a fact, and there's no point in denying it, that the backlash one is seeing in the West shares a direct causality with the interventions in the Middle East.
In a strange way, Donald Trump is therefore more nationalist-realist-conservative than the current crop of neo-conservatism in Europe and the USA.
So, here are a few ground truths. The world is going back to nation states, interests, spheres of influence and great power politics. Realism is back and one can accept or reject it based on one's narratives, but it remains a truth regardless. The economic order is not collapsing yet, because economies are interconnected. but the current socio-political model is flawed and is being rejected.
This year is as significant as 1991 in a way that can change the historical direction for the next one or two decades. So policy makers across the world might as well plan and learn from Obama's mistakes. First, the threat of inflation needs to be stopped. It clouds judgment and skewers predictions.
Second, reflexive policy prescriptions must be stopped in the West. There is no harm in compromise and recalibration of standardized alliance structures. In fact, one can take hope that if Trump's stark realism is true, he will be a comparatively easy person to deal with and will understand spheres of influences and interests much better and bereft of value judgments. He has constantly talked about how he understands business; well it is time for other great powers to show him where American interests and come to a deal.
The people in the West are tired of changing other societies, despite what their leaders preach, according to PEW surveys. They were opposed to intervention in Syria, as well as in Libya, but they happened anyway. It's about time nation building and interventions stop. This massive disconnect between policy makers and public is what led to Trumpism.
Third, defined threats, and narrow - very narrow - national interests are needed as well an open communication channel, and not some zealous moral battle. A steady assessment of cost benefit analysis as well as a détente with other great powers would be a good start.
Sumantra Maitra is a columnist with China.org.cn. For more information please visit:
http://www.china.org.cn/opinion/SumantraMaitra.htm
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