If you thought US elections were dirty, look at France
- By Sumantra Maitra
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E-mail China.org.cn, February 20, 2017
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File photo of Marine Le Pen, leader of France's National Front (FN) party. |
U.S. elections, the longest in the Western world went down to soul sucking lows last year after blistering campaigns from Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton. But all that seems history now, as the French election race heats up. If you think U.S. elections were jarring and toxic, you'd be surprised at the amount of scandals France is churning out now.
Francoise Fillon who was supposed to be a shoo-in in a two way contest between him and Marine Le Pen was embroiled in his own controversy, where his Irish born wife was accused of having avoided tax in family earnings paid by him, in lieu of her work as an assistant in his campaign. Nothing shocking, given European corruption levels, but enough to derail his momentum.
On the center left the more reasonable candidate Emmanuelle Macron is battling his own sordid sensual rumors, most of which don't seem to be true, but enough to take the wind out of his campaign.
Fillon apologized for what he claimed was an error of judgment with regards to his wife's employment, and vowed to carry on. He said it was a mistake in good faith, and that doesn't question his competence to lead.
Fillon, who believes that the recipe for France's way forward is a mix between Gaullist populism and Thatcherite free markets, is planning a big cut in public spending and tax cuts if he wins. Macron on the other hand, wants all the companies suffering after Brexit and Trump's win in the U.S. to set up shop in Paris.
To be fair both the solutions are childlike and impossible to follow through, given French work culture, and existing laws. But the bigger issue is the fact that polls show Marine Le Pen is leading the election ahead of both Macron and Fillon. The polls predict that far-right Marine Le Pen will meet centrist independent Macron in the May 7 runoff. While the poll also suggests that Macron will eventually beat Le Pen, given 2016, and the potential of terror attacks in France, a one on one battle with Le Pen is a hard gamble.
The key to Le Pen's popularity is similar to Brexit and Trump.
Le Pen has positioned herself as an outsider, and seems to imitate the campaign tactics of Brexit and Trump, making French greatness, nostalgia for the past and xenophobia lite to be official positions. Le Pen is also comparatively a lot more hardcore than either the Brexiteers or Trump, given her extreme antagonism to Muslims, Jews, migrants, foreigners, and the EU.
Le Pen also highlighted the deep polarization within French society, the rising populist tide within France. She also wants France to get out of NATO, get out of any intervention and nation building, and bring out borderline xenophobic law of registration based on nationality, and cancel dual citizenship of French people. Surprisingly, the support for Le Pen is strong with the youth, unlike both Brexit and Trump, which were mostly a phenomena mobilized by the older generations and baby boomers.
French bonds fell to their lowest level in two years, as the markets react in fear the chance of a Le Pen victory. It is not difficult to anticipate, if one major terror attack happens in France, before the elections, like Bataclan, then it is almost inevitable that Le Pen is the French president.
Le Pen, who comes from a privileged background, complains that she was being discriminated against when she was a child, as her father was considered a neo-fascist and their home was bombed. She's definitely enjoying what seems to be the best time ever for Front National.
Unfortunately there's a sense of truth in her words. For years she had complained about broken societies, drug addictions, burning and riot infested French cities, prostitution, crime and terrorism. French people have taken heart to her portrayal of France as a declining but once proud nation, and in a sense, she is more similar in that regard to Duterte than Trump, as she wants to clean up France rather than change it.
It is unclear how the EU will survive her clean up job, if she wins.
Sumantra Maitra is a columnist with China.org.cn. For more information please visit:
http://www.china.org.cn/opinion/SumantraMaitra.htm
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