SCIO press conference on China's economic performance in H1 2026

Dazhong Daily:

The consumer price index (CPI) continued to rise moderately in the first half of the year, which has drawn much attention from the public. How would you evaluate the price performance in the first half of the year? Given the fluctuations in international market prices, what will the trend in prices be in China in the next stage? Thank you.

Mao Shengyong:

I would like to invite Ms. Wang to answer these questions.

Wang Guanhua:

Thank you for your questions. As you said, price levels are related to both macroeconomic performance and people's daily lives, and so attract a lot of attention from the public. The CPI trend in the first half of this year had the following characteristics:

First, the CPI showed a moderate upward trend in the first half of the year. The CPI rose by 1.0% year on year in the first half of the year, with a 0.9% increase in the first quarter, and a 1.1% increase in the second quarter, 0.2 percentage point higher than that of the first quarter. Since the fourth quarter of last year, the CPI has increased for three consecutive quarters. This reflects both changes in domestic consumer demand in related sectors and the effectiveness of previous comprehensive measures to address "rat race" competition. It was also influenced by recent fluctuations in international commodity prices. In terms of the core CPI, except for January and February when it fluctuated more significantly due to the timing of the Spring Festival, the core CPI remained at or above 1% in other months, reflecting the upward pull on prices from the release of consumer demand. A prime example is the cultural tourism and travel services sector. In the first half of this year, holidays such as the May Day holiday and the spring break for primary and secondary schools in many places boosted demand for travel services. Family trips, parent-child tours and study tours remained popular. In the first half of the year, the price of travel services in the CPI rose by 2.4% year on year, with prices for services such as travel agency fees, hotel accommodation and air tickets all showing an upward trend. In addition, as AI drives the iterative upgrading of consumer electronics products, demand for related products remains robust and prices continue to rise. In the first half of the year, the prices of cellphones and wearable smart devices increased by 4.0% and 2.7% year on year, respectively.

Second, the CPI continued to rise moderately in June, with the growth rate registering a slight decline compared with the previous month. Since February, the CPI has been fluctuating slightly within the narrow range of 1% to 1.3%. In June, it rose by 1% year on year, down 0.2 percentage point from the previous month, not showing much fluctuation. It fell by 0.3% month on month, mainly due to seasonal factors and fluctuations in international market prices. This June, international gold and oil prices dropped with fluctuations. As a result, domestic gold jewelry and gasoline prices fell by 8.7% and 4.9% month on month, respectively, which together dragged the CPI down by 0.22 percentage point month on month, and was the main reason for the month-on-month decline in CPI. In addition, food prices also declined month on month due to seasonal factors. In particular, with an abundant supply of seasonal fruits and vegetables coming to market, prices of fresh vegetables and fruits dropped by 1% and 2%, respectively.

Third, a reasonable rebound in the CPI has helped improve corporate profit expectations, stabilize market confidence, promote employment and income growth, and facilitate the smooth circulation of the national economy. Looking ahead to the second half of the year, although fluctuations in international commodity prices may cause some disruption to domestic prices, the Chinese economy has strong resilience, with sufficient supply of daily necessities, and a robust and effective policy system for ensuring supply and stabilizing prices. With the continued implementation of various policies to promote consumption, demand for services, upgraded goods and new types of consumption are expected to be steadily released, and the CPI will maintain a moderate upward trend. Thank you.