Petro Poroshenko won Ukraine's presidential elections with 54 percent of the vote. He is an oligarch estimated to be worth US$1.6 billion. This money is said to have come from the chocolate and confectionary business. From 2007-2012 Poroshenko was head of the Council of the National Bank of Ukraine. He served as the Minister for Foreign Affairs from 2009 to 2010, and became the Economic Development and Trade Minister under the former President Viktor Yanukovych, who was ousted by the so-called "Euro-Maidan" protests in March this year. Although Poroshenko did not participate in the protests directly, his money, and the fact that he owns a television station, helped to shape public opinion and acted as a substitute for his lack of "revolutionary" credentials.

Indeed, the neo-Nazi thugs who led the final uprising against Yanukovich, were trounced in the elections on May 25. Oleh Tiahnybok, the leader of the neo-Nazi Svoboda or Freedom party, received only 1.3 percent of the votes. This compares to 10.4 percent in 2012. Dmytro Yarosh, the head of the far-right paramilitary group, the Right Sector, polled only 1 percent. Their actions over the last month, particularly the firebombing and murder of dozens in Odessa, must have horrified and alienated millions of ordinary Ukrainians and this was reflected in the pathetic electoral results of the fascists.

In the southeastern region of Donetsk, the majority voted for independence from Kiev on May 11 in ad hoc elections. Where pro-Russian separatists hold power, they prevented participation in Ukraine's presidential election. As I write, a battle for control over the airport is taking place, but it seems likely that Russia and Ukraine will soon enter negotiations to pacify the restive region.

Russian officials know that Poroshenko will try to mend bridges with Moscow and he is willing to grant greater autonomy and restore Russian language rights. The economic hold that Russia has over Ukraine, through oil and gas, is far more persuasive than empty U.S. and E.U. promises of aid and loans with strings attached. Living standards throughout Ukraine have plummeted since the March coup against Yanukovich, and social and nationalist antagonisms have reached near fever pitch. If Poroshenko implements IMF diktats and austerity, this will enrage the Ukrainian people again. This would be a sure pathway to lose friends and alienate people and to reinvigorate street protests and fascist forces. On the other side, if he can come to a temporary deal with Russia over Donetsk, Russia can lighten the economic burden on Ukraine. Then Poroshenko can, at least temporarily, squeeze both Russia and the West for charitable contributions to the cause of peace and stability. Both Putin and Poroshenko are able to point to the many pathways that lead towards an all out civil war, and they can base their public posturing on trying to avoid this inferno.

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