Petro Poroshenko's Ukrainian chocolate factory
- By Heiko Khoo
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E-mail China.org.cn, May 27, 2014
Germany also fears that a civil war in Ukraine would produce a wave of refugees, force the European Union into supporting even closer ties to Ukraine, and provoke a conflict, in which Russia uses its gas supply to Europe as an economic and political weapon. Sanctions imposed against Russia by the U.S. were not keenly supported by Germany, which is Russia's biggest European trading partner. Germany's interests conflict with U.S. policy in Ukraine. This was evident throughout the recent crisis. It is even possible that Germany, Russia and Ukraine will cobble together a temporary settlement, which explicitly excludes the United States. from any meaningful participation.
Poroshenko, despite his designation in the Western media as a "pro-Western businessman," knows fully well that he has to deal with the real world, which means with Russia. He was the Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council when Yulia Tymoshenko was prime minister. Tymoshenko came to power through the U.S. sponsored Orange Revolution in 2004, but this darling of the Western media also made a deal with Russia, despite her pro-Western outlook. Tymoshenko and Poroshenko fell out when they accused each other of corruption.
In Ukraine's privatisation process the peoples' wealth was stolen from them and the thieves took control of political power. This was similar to what happened in Russia in the 1990s. But Putin clipped the political wings of the Russia's billionaire oligarchs. He thereby gained in popularity and acquired the resources to finance social peace. President Putin will no doubt offer Poroshenko some useful advice about how to avoid the fate of Yanukovich. And it is true that Ukraine's government can probably acquire the resources necessary to restore temporary social stability.
Poroshenko likes to present himself as an honest man whose billions come from a magical chocolate factory. So if he emulates Putin's methods and expropriates a few oligarchs, he can enhance the state budget and strengthen his own authority. Ukraine's acting Prosecutor General Oleh Makhnitsky, who is a member of the neo-Nazi Freedom Party, claims that US$100 billion was stolen by a mafia syndicate linked to Yanukovich. Of course, if this is true, it seems rather implausible that Poroshenko, as the Minister for Economic Development and Trade, was not involved. As Ukraine has dozens of criminal billionaires, Poroshenko has good reason to appear to act robustly, particularly against those who might otherwise accuse him of criminality. He may authorise the seizure of their immovable assets and simultaneously let them keep their cash. He can offer them a peaceful life in Russia or England, in exchange for money to buy time. If he fails to do this, the descent toward civil war will almost certainly continue.
The author is a columnist with China.org.cn. For more information please visit: http://china.org.cn/opinion/heikokhoo.htm
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